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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 27th, 2014–Jan 28th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

'Low Hazard' does not mean 'No Hazard' and isolated avalanches may still be possible. Check out this blog post for further discussion.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

The ridge of high pressure begins to weaken on Tuesday and will break down on Wednesday. Light precipitation is expected for Wednesday and Thursday.Tuesday: Mostly sunny, dry conditions, treeline temperatures around -5C, light SW winds at treelineWednesday: Cloudy, snowfall 2-4cm, treeline temperatures around -5C, light NW winds at treelineThursday: Cloudy, snowfall 1-2cm, treeline temperatures around -8C, light N winds at treeline

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported since the solar activity on Friday and Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths vary, but in general there is around 200 to 250cm of snow at tree line and as much as 300 cm on lee slopes in the alpine. In the south and to the east of the region, there are still areas with a relatively thin snowpack. The recent dry, warm weather has generally consolidated the upper snowpack. As temperatures now begin to cool, stability in the upper snowpack should increase further. Keep in mind that 'Low Hazard' does not mean 'No Hazard' and that residual risk of avalanches still exists. Old, stubborn hard wind slabs may still exist in isolated areas. A basal facet/crust combo (weak sugary snow above and below a crust) near the ground is still a concern in some areas, and was the culprit with some of the very large recent avalanches. . The depth of this layer makes triggering an avalanche on it unlikely (maybe a heavy load on a thin spot in steep terrain, rapid temperature change, or cornice fall), but the consequences would be large and very destructive.Large surface hoar is reported to have formed in sheltered areas at all elevations with the exception of open south-facing slopes where the sun has caused melting and formed a sun crust.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.