Deadly avalanche conditions exist... Weak layers in the snowpack just took a significant hit overnight. Avalanche sensitivity is on a hair-trigger. Natural avalanches remain possible and could become very large in size reaching valley bottoms. Travel in, or near avalanche terrain should be avoided. Even small steep slopes near Crested Butte pose dangerous avalanche conditions, such as those above Peanut Lake Road.
This avalanche problem is expected to be on a hair-trigger in many areas. Deadly avalanches releasing several feet deep may release naturally today and run from the alpine, all the way down to valley bottoms. Or, a human could remotely trigger an avalanche from a low angled slope connected to a steeper slope.
1/31: Natural persistent slabs that were triggered on Sunday by solar warming
Soft slab avalanches can be triggered in the recent snow. This avalanche problem will be around 1 foot thick in many areas, and several feet thick on upper elevation wind-loaded slopes. This avalanche problem also overlies the deadly persistent slab avalanche problem. Avoidance is the travel advice.
Storm Slab avalanche from earlier this winter.
1" to 1.5" of water accumulated in a 8 to 14-hour period. That is a significant and rapid load for our weak snowpack. SW winds at the start of the storm gusted to 90mph at upper elevations, before decreasing overnight and becoming west to northwest. With an end to accumulating snowfall, the wind and the sun will be the key factors in continued natural avalanche activity. The alpine wind forecast keeps wind-loading on today's radar. The avalanche problems are on a hair-trigger, and any extra load such as a squirrel, a person, or more wind-loading has a very likely chance to produce an avalanche.
Here is the current best estimates on snow accumulations from the last storm. Several of these readings came from 3 am, but accumulating snowfall had mostly ended by that time.
Schofield Pass 1.3" to 1.5" SWE
Irwin estimated at 13" to 17” of snow
CBMR Pow Cam: 12” of snow in 24 hours.Butte Snotel: 0.9" SWE
Upper Taylor Snotel: 1” SWE and 14” snow
With the wind forcasted to increase tonight, and another round of snow in the forecast for tomorrow, the threat of very large natural avalanches will continue.
