Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Instabilities are becoming increasingly isolated and you can find safe riding in most steep terrain.  Exceptions will be dangerously large and difficult to identify, thus careful terrain selection remains important. You can give yourself a wide buffer against the low likelihood of triggering a deep slab by riding southerly aspects or choosing routes with deep, uniform snowpacks on the shady half of the compass.  Deeper snowpacks in the Southeast Mountains are most common on leeward terrain and wind-sheltered terrain up valleys.  Tread lightly in terrain where snowpack depths are variable from seasonal winds or shallower because of less snow this season.    Regroup in safe zones that are appropriate for very large avalanches. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Persistent slabs have become a low likelihood but high consequence concern on the northern half of the compass, where faceted weak layers lurk near the ground.   You are most likely to impact these layers and trigger a dangerous avalanche where slabs are thinner.  Choose terrain with a deep, uniform snowpack to reduce your risk.  Be cautious in unsupported, rocky terrain or in alpine terrain where winds have created variable snow depths.  Slopes that avalanched early in the holiday cycle or slopes in the shallowest parts of the Southeast Mountains also have thinner slabs that could be easier to trigger.  

    One of the few deep slab avalanches triggered since the New Year.  This was an explosive triggered hard slab on a west aspect at Irwin, where slab depths are variable due to seasonal wind patterns.  

Avalanche Discussion

The trend towards generally safe conditions continues this weekend under the current quiet weather pattern, starting with the Northwest Mountains where the snowpack is deepest and strongest.  Although we are still finding occasional propagating results in long column tests, such as a PST 35/150 END yesterday at Snodgrass, stability test scores have been improving in the past week, both locally and regionally.  That's a welcomed pattern that is further supported by a lack of obvious signs of instability or human-triggered deep slab avalanches since the big storm ended on New Year's Day.   Our forecast staff has felt comfortable stepping out into more aggressive avalanche terrain in the past week, although we still remain cautious of specific terrain features. The last explosive triggered deep slab was earlier this week, on Monday.  All of the explosive results since the New Year were in very steep, unsupported, rocky terrain or terrain with variable slab depths because of winds.  This recent avalanche in the Northern San Juans further exemplifies that type of terrain.  Terrain features where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin due to wind effects are my biggest concerns for a rare but nasty avalanche.  There are plenty of great riding options right now that avoid that kind of terrain, and with a little more time, our concerns for triggering even the most suspect slopes will diminish. For now, give yourself a margin for uncertainty and aim for terrain with consistently deep snow coverage.  Regroup in safe terrain that is out of harm's way if the whole season's snowpack releases and runs far.    

With a couple of inches of new snow yesterday in the Northwest Mountains, there is a small amount of fuel available for drifting under today's northerly winds.  Stay alert for thin wind slabs forming in alpine if you are riding in extreme terrain today.  

Regions covered