Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Cold temperatures, shifting wind direction, and very light snow are the contributing factors to the avalanche problems today. You are likely to encounter dry loose snow moving with you on slopes steeper than 30 degrees at all elevations. It's possible to trigger a wind slab in wind-deposited snow at middle and upper elevations on all aspects. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Our advisory area has had a significant amount of snow during the past week. This snow fell during very cold temperatures. This is the kind of snow we love to play in. Very low density (light) snow makes for excellent skiing and riding conditions. This light snow sitting on the surface will likely be moving with you in terrain steeper than 30 degrees. Dry loose snow is also known as "sluff" and it requires proper terrain selection and terrain management as you're traveling through the mountains.

    You're likely to encounter this avalanche problem at all elevations throughout the advisory area since there is light, dry powder all the way down to the valley floors in many locations. The size of these dry loose avalanches is likely going to be on the smaller end of the spectrum. That does not mean the hazard is small. Small avalanches in high consequence terrain are a large risk. Dry loose snow can easily knock you off your feet and push you into terrain that you may not intend to go into (think trees, cliffs, rocks, etc.).

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    All of this soft, light snow that has made for great conditions is also very easily moved by wind. We have plenty of snow available for transport on the surface throughout our advisory area. Throughout the past several days, most places saw winds blow predominately out of the S/SW. However, yesterday morning winds shifted to the W and eventually NW. This means you have the possibility of encountering an avalanche problem of wind-deposited snow on multiple aspects.  Be aware of this problem on all aspects of the compass rose as you travel into middle and upper elevation terrain. 

    Most of our observations throughout the advisory area have confirmed that this wind slab problem is a concern to be aware of. In many places the new snow is so soft, the transition to wind-affected snow may be subtle. Tune into clues in your environment (think drifts, pillows, scoured snow surfaces, and cornices). 

    Again, these problems are likely to be in the small to medium range. However, if you've read the above problem, small avalanches in high consequence terrain can be devastating. If you are seeing red flags like shooting cracks or hearing hollow sounds, heed the advice and find an alternative route.

    Wind slab cracking near Warm Lake on Thursday 12/30/21.

    Photo: Brian Peters

Avalanche Discussion

This information is sponsored by onX Backcountry...Thank you for supporting the Payette Avalanche Center!

Welcome to 2022 from the Payette Avalanche Center. Lots of new light snow, cold temperatures, and wind. These factors, when coupled together are the ingredients for our avalanche problems today. Pay close attention to all of these variables when traveling through the mountains, especially if you notice sudden changes. 

Brrr, bundle up out there. Weather stations throughout our advisory area saw low temperatures this morning drop well below zero. Take into account a N/NW wind and wind chill values are likely to stay below zero in the mountains throughout the day. Pay close attention to the wind direction while recreating in the mountains this weekend. 

Cold temperatures lead to changing snow conditions, primarily in the form of faceting (weakening) at the surface and settling (strengthening) just below the surface. Many of the weather stations throughout the region reported  4-6 inches of settlement overnight. Frigid temperatures and calm winds are the perfect recipe for surface hoar and/or near-surface facet formation. These snow grains don't pose a hazard while on the snow surface, but if they stay well preserved before the next storm and get buried, these snow grains could become a potential problem. As an older, wiser snow guru once said, "Today's snow surface is tomorrow's weak layer". Pay attention to what is forming on the snow surface this weekend before the arrival of the next storm system.

Yesterday, Tamarack Ski Patrol reported wind slab formation along ridgetops resting on over a foot of soft, light snow. Strong over weak, created cornice buildup and snow in the slope that was very sensitive to the weight of a skier. These wind slabs were soft and mostly entrained soft light snow within the slope (wind slab problem on ridgetops, dry loose problem in slope). 

Use good travel protocols like exposing only one person at a time to all steep slopes, keep your eyes on your partners, and carry an avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, shovel, and probe).

*** Check out our Observations Page to see what others are seeing...We are needing more Information from snowmobilers and skiers on snow and weather conditions. It helps our forecasts and it not only helps other users in and outside of the community, but it could save a person’s life also. If you travel to slide or ride to other regions, other avalanche centers are swelling with information from other users for your trip planning.

It can be quick with or without a photo…Use the Observations link at the top of the page to submit your observations. If you experience any unfortunate technical issues please email us at [email protected]…Thanks ahead of time.

***Avalanches early season can put you into rocks and logs easily, and pull out to the ground…be cautious and carry all of your Avi gear (transceiver, shovel probe) as well as general protective gear like helmets, knee pads, chest protectors.