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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 16th, 2014–Apr 17th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Avalanche danger can rise very quickly with warming and solar radiation. Be aware of changing conditions and overhead hazards.For more insight into spring danger ratings, check out our Blog Post.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Thursday:  Light to locally moderate precipitation. Winds moderate west. Freezing level 1800m.Friday:  Overcast with flurries or light snow. Moderate northwest  winds. Freezing level 1500m.Saturday: Mix of sun and cloud. Light west wind. Freezing level 2200m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports include loose wet avalanches running to size 1.5 solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

There is moist/wet snow and/or a supportive crust on all aspects and elevations except for high elevation north-facing terrain. Three persistent weak layers exist in the highly variable snowpack of the Purcells. -The mid-March sun crust/surface hoar layer down 50-80cm seem and the early-March crust/facet/surface hoar layer down around 80-120cm seem to be laying dormant for the time being. -The mid-February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is typically down 60 - 120cm. Direct triggering of this layer has become unlikely, however, cornice fall, a smaller avalanche in motion or prolonged warming may wake this layer up, which would result in very large and destructive avalanches.-Weak basal facets exist in many areas, but triggering is unlikely.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.