Confidence
Fair - Due to variable snowpack conditions on Monday
Weather Forecast
The pattern turns cooler, with mainly cloudy skies. The next low pressure system will begin to effect the region on Tuesday, bringing cloud cover and new snow.Monday: The ridge will move over all regions and dominate the weather pattern. Lingering cloud until mid-day with possible sunny skies in the afternoon. Ridgetop winds light from the South. Alpine temperatures near -7 and freezing levels around 1100 m in the afternoon. Tuesday: The low will bring a milder southerly flow over the region and push a weak and poorly timed upper wave across the Kootenay, Columbias and South Rockies. Alpine temperatures -6 and freezing levels 1400 m. Ridgetop winds light from the SW. Wednesday: Light-moderate snow amounts with ridgetop winds light from the South. Alpine temperatures near -7 and freezing levels 1400 m falling to valley bottom overnight.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday the region saw a widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 3. Most of these avalanches failed within the new storm snow from all aspects, however the N-E aspects were the most active. Avalanche activity occurred at 1500 m and above. There were a couple reports of the failing layer being the February 12 surface hoar. The size of those avalanches were 2.5, around 2400 m and on N-E aspects. Natural activity may spike if the sun shines through on Monday. Skier, and rider triggers are likely.
Snowpack Summary
Moderate amounts of new snow fell over the past couple days, adding to an ongoing storm snow instability, particularly on the west side of the region where accumulations have been highest. The variably reactive February 12th and 15th surface hoar layers now exist up to 80cm below the surface and seem most prevalent on the west side of the region. This interface may also be reactive on solar aspects where a sun crust exists.A surface hoar layer buried on February 23 is still on the radar of some operators. This layer has been less likely to trigger by skiers, but may still be sensitive to large loads like avalanches in motion or cornice fall.The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.