Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Two feet of new snow has fallen since Dec 11 onto a weak faceted snowpack creating very dangerous avalanche conditions. These avalanches have the potential to be remotely triggered from a distance, and in addition, this new load is also stressing deeper weak layers buried near the ground. Large natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely today - travel in or around avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Since Dec 11 we've added about 2ft of new snow and 2" of water onto buried weak layers in our snowpack. We've already seen natural avalanche activity from Dec 11 that has failed on these deeper layers of concern. Persistent Slab avalanches today will be Large and capable of running long distances - know where avalanche terrain exists around you and avoid hanging out or traveling in places that would be threatened if one of these avalanches were to release above you. Just because you yourself are not in avalanche terrain doesn't mean that the area that you're in isn't exposed. 

    Natural Persistent Slab avalanche from Friday Dec 11 on a Northeast aspect. This avalanche failed on weak facets near the ground.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Storm Slabs today could be up to 2+ft in depth and include snow that fell on Dec 11. This avalanche problem will exist at all aspects and elevations. These avalanches have shown the ability to be remotely triggered from a distance. Areas or slopes that have seen some wind will be especially sensative. Pay attention to where the wind is effecting the snow and look for signs of unstable snow such as shooting cracks and audible collapses - avoid terrain traps and slopes greater than 30 degrees. Storm Slab avalanches today have the ability to step down into deeper weak layers creating a more destructive Persistent Slab avalanche. 

     

     

     

     

    A small Storm Slab avalanche was triggered on a steep test slope near treeline on Dec 11.

Avalanche Discussion

We received around 10-14" of new snow overnight from 0.9 - 1.2" of snow water equivalent (SWE). That brings our 72hr totals up to 20-26" of new snow and 1.8 - 2.2" of SWE. We've maintained Moderate to Strong winds through the majority of that 72hrs. 

Prior to these events our snowpack was exceedingly weak and faceted from a prolonged period of high pressure. The most effecient way to over stress a snowpack is to throw a rapid load of snow at it. Intense precipitation rates and strong winds accomplish this extremely well. We've experienced both of these components over the past 72hrs. So the short and simple of it is that we have an incredibly stressed snowpack at the moment that is driving a significant increase in our avalanche danger. Both Storm Slab and Persistent Slab avalanches today will be large enough to bury a skier or rider. 

Both natural and skier-triggered avalanches were reported on Dec 11. Several of these avalanches failed into deep weak layers producing large Persistent Slab avalanches. Storm Slab avalanches reported were small but sensative and demonstrated the capability of being remotely triggered from a distance. We expect to see an increase in natural avalanche activity and human-triggered avalanches will be very likely. 

We are all excited about the new snow. Our terrain is finally starting to fill in and the prospect of skiing 2ft of powder is difficult to temper (believe me, I feel the same way!) As the storm exits this morning the clouds will clear quickly and we'll be left with a beautiful blue-bird day. If you find yourself out in the mountains today the skiing is going to look incredible but unfortunately now is not the time to push the boundaries. With an increase in avalanche danger comes a decrease in our available terrain. In periods of high instability and uncertainty the one component we have control over is what terrain we choose to travel in. Making this decision prior to getting out is crucial in managing group dynamics and excitement that occur when all of sudden you're staring at a slope that just looks oh, so good. Travel in avalanche terrain (30-45 degrees) is not recommended today. 

Let's dial it back and give our snowpack some time to readjust. Stay safe out there today everyone!

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