Avalanche forecast

Eastside Region

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist at all elevations.  Human triggered avalanches will be LIKELY today. Fresh, sizable wind slabs near and above treeline and Storm slab avalanches at all elevations are likely sensitive today.  Over a foot of new snow fell last night bringing over 1” of water equivalent. This is a substantial new load that has been added to a weak underlying snowpack, large and destructive persistent slab avalanches may be possible. CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists at all elevations. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision making are essential.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Over a foot of new snow fell overnight and this was accompanied by moderate to strong winds out of the southwest. While winds are expected to drop in speed today you should expect large and sensitive wind slabs on leeward slopes near and above treeline. Be particularly cautious if wind speeds are stronger than expected.  It is imperative to remember that even a small wind slab avalanche today might be enough to trigger a much larger and more destructive Persistent slab avalanche.  Be suspect of terrain features that encourage drifting such as the leeward sides of ridgelines, gully features, and cross-loaded depressions. Blowing snow, recent cornice growth, stiff hollow feeling upside-down snow, and a textured, uneven snow surface are all signs of recent wind transport. Use these signs to identify and avoid slopes with recent wind deposits. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Storm instabilities such as Storm slab avalanches and loose surface sluffs will be likely today at all elevations.  Be wary of steep unsupported terrain features and remember that even a relatively small storm slab avalanche has the potential to step down to weak layers deeper in the snowpack resulting in a much larger persistent slab avalanche. Convex rollovers and slopes over 30° in steepness are particularly suspect today. When in doubt, avoid being on or under avalanche terrain and be cognizant of your exposure to terrain features that increase the consequences of avalanches. This includes road cuts, gully features, cliff bands, and mid-slope depressions. Be wary of overhead hazards today and avoid being in or underneath avalanche terrain.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    A significant new load was added to our snowpack overnight in the form of fresh snow and importantly over 1” of Water Equivalent.   Field observations continue to highlight our weak structure, and this rapid loading event has brought back concern over the potential for large persistent slab avalanches. This is not our typical Sierra snowpack and Forecaster confidence is low when it comes to the likelihood and sensitivity of this problem, however, if an avalanche is triggered on these deeper weak layers is today it is likely to be very large potentially running near the ground.  The weight of a skier or a wind slab or storm slab avalanche might be all that is needed to tip the scales and trigger a large destructive avalanche.   Persistent Slab problems challenge our patience and managing this problem requires extensive evaluation and deliberate terrain choice.  Northerly and Easterly facing terrain that still held snow from November and December are our potential problem areas particularly in the northern half of the range.  Don’t be afraid to investigate the lower reaches of the snowpack to see if old snow is present in the areas you wish to travel. This may mean digging all the way to the ground if you suspect old snow is present. Remember that persistent slab avalanches often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine surface instabilities such as wind or storm slab and in some cases persistent slab avalanches can be remotely triggered from adjacent slopes. Give yourself a wide safety margin, be wary of hazards that may reside above you, and use terrain choice to limit your exposure.

     

Avalanche Discussion

As we enter the holiday weekend it will be important not to let the promise of fresh snow get the better of you.  Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY today and resulting avalanches have the potential to be large and destructive.  We are dealing with multiple avalanche problems today on all aspects and at all elevations and these problems all have different implications on travel and terrain selection.  After any significant load, it is important to step it back, re-evaluate, and allow for things to settle. Patience is KEY right now, allowing powder fever to get the best of you could be a costly mistake today. When uncertainty is high, keep it simple and avoid avalanche terrain.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS:

2/11 - Mammoth Area- Variable surface conditions in the Sherwins

2/11- McGee Creek - challenging surface conditions on McGee mountain

2/11-Bishop Area - Minimal snow coverage.

2/10 – Convict – Mono Jim Peak – Variable snow conditions

2/10 – Lee Vining – Dana Plateau area – variable snow conditions

2/10 – June Lk Area – Hemlock/Devils slide – moist snow at low elevations

2/10 – McGee –McGee mountain –thin coverage & wet snow

2/10 - Mammoth Area - Lakes Basin - snow conditions

2/10 – McGee –McGee mountain –variable snow conditions

*Scroll up and click on the “Observations” tab to see a listing of past 20 observations, or click on the “Resources” menu --> “ESAC Observations” to see a listing of all observations

Regions covered