Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The Avalanche Hazard in the West Central Mountains is CONSIDERABLE today.  Human-triggered avalanches between 16 and 30+ inches are possible in many areas across the PAC forecast area right now. There are several avalanche problems present in our mountains that will be easily triggered by a skier or rider on steep terrain.  A mid-storm warm-up earlier this week created a subtle but sensitive storm slab that is our biggest concern right now.  Persistent weak layers from last week and older layers are reactive and have been responsible for both natural and human-triggered avalanches over the last 5 days.  Soft wind slabs have formed on leeward terrain and will be growing over the next 36 hours as S and SW winds increase and shift to the NW.  Sluffs or loose snow avalanches will be present on steeper slopes.  Your best and safest bet is to avoid steeper terrain where triggering an avalanche is more likely.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    Our snowpack grew by about 35 inches throughout most of the PAC advisory in the last 7 days.  We have several weak layers in the snowpack including one that formed during the latest storm cycle around 45cm down,  a layer of buried surface hoar and near surface facets that formed during the window of high-pressure last week prior to the storm cycle as well as deeper problems that refuse to go away. In general most of the problems that skiers and riders are able to trigger are isolated to the upper 3 feet of the snowpack.  BUT, there are areas where you could still trigger the 1/26 layer which is now buried around 120cm(47 inches),  Collapsing or whumphing of the buried weak layers is still taking place in some protected areas.  

     

     

     

     

     

    2/17/21 Sargeants Mt. This area experienced a large collapse/whumph as I skinned through it. It was a shallow, rocky area. The 2/11 layer was very reactive and well preserved.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    Winds ramped up yesterday afternoon and last night with gusts peaking near 22mph. Wind directions varied between NE, E, and S. Over the last 2 days, the winds have been able to easily transport the light density snow and have created soft but sensitive wind slabs near ridgelines and on wind-exposed terrain. Large cornices are growing on the ridgelines as well. Over the last 2 days, cornices have become very sensitive and are likely to break much larger and further back than you would expect.  Tamarack Ski Patrol reported that cornice mitigation produced very sensitive soft wind slabs below the cornices yesterday morning. If you are skiing out of bounds in that area, expect to find easily triggerable wind slabs near ridgetops and on wind-loaded slopes.  Skiers were able to trigger soft slabs in Full Moon Bowl on Tuesday.

    Experienced skiers produced this soft slab on Tuesday with a ski cut on the edge of Full Moon Bowl near Tamarack.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1

    Sluffing or dry loose avalanches are an indicator of outstanding ski or riding conditions and light, dry snow.   They can pile up quickly in terrain traps, tree wells and have the ability to push you into terrain you don't want to be in.  If you are skiing or riding in places right now and getting sluffing you are probably in terrain steeper than you should be playing in right now based on the weak layers deeper in the snowpack.  Sluffs also have the ability to overload the snowpack as they pile up and trigger deeper layers within the snowpack.

    2/17/21 Sluffing caused by a cornice bomb quickly piling up near the trees at the bottom of this slope.

Avalanche Discussion

 

2021 Virtual Silent Auction Fundraiser February 14 @ 8:00 am - February 20 @ 9:00 pm

This is our major fundraiser for the 2021 season.  In lieu of holding an in-person event, we are having a silent auction that begins February 14 and will run all week with final bids closing at 9 pm on Saturday, February 20th.  Our fundraising goal is $5000.  This will go to additional forecasts in 2022, continued maintenance of our beacon training park, fund the future forecaster's scholarship program, continued maintenance of the granite mountain weather station, and provide avalanche education to the community. Click here for more information

The most repeated message from Avalanche Centers across the Western US right now is "avoid steep slopes", with human-triggered avalanches and avalanche fatalities continuing to stack up, the best advice is to pay attention to your slope angles.  There is a huge difference between a 30-degree slope and a 37-degree slope in terms of triggering an avalanche.   As you travel, try to gauge the slope angle and keep an eye on your partners.   If you see or trigger avalanche activity, please take the time to snap a picture and note the approximate elevation and aspect, you can submit an observation on our website. Getting your info helps forecasters and other users get a better picture of the conditions throughout our mountains. If you have trouble using our observations page, please email us at: [email protected]

 

***Also, please be mindful of other users, and where you are at. There are closures for motorized travel in and around the local ski areas, in the Lick Creek Canyon,  Granite Mtn, Jug Mountain, and other areas throughout our region.  Check out the Winter Travel Map to find out where you can shred on your sled or moto.  Not all of these areas are signed, it is your responsibility to know where these closures exist.