Special Public Avalanche Warning in effect for this region for the Easter Long Weekend.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Moderate northwest winds with flurries or light snow overnight. Freezing level dropping down to 800 metres by Friday morning. Skies becoming broken or scattered cloud during the day with light westerly winds and freezing levels climbing to at least 1500 metres. Mostly sunny on Saturday with an overnight freeze down close to valley bottoms. Light westerly winds during the day with freezing levels climbing up to 1700 metres. Cloud developing by Sunday morning with light southwest winds and some chance of flurries in the late afternoon.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches reported. Some explosives control on cornice on Tuesday resulted in releases up to size 2.5 on northerly aspects. We had a report on Monday of another skier remote triggered avalanche size 2.5 from 200 metres away on a southeast aspect at 2320 metres, believed to have released on the February 27th weak layer. A MIN report from Monday at Gorman lake in the Dogtooth range describes "a lot of cornice failures", as well as "many slides running full path." On Sunday, large cornice releases triggered persistent slabs on slopes below up to size 3.0 in the central part of the region, and a group of skiers remotely triggered a size 2.5 from 6 metres away on a southeast aspect at 2400 metres in the north of the region.
Snowpack Summary
Forecast new snow and wind are expected to develop a new storm slab above a mix of crusts on solar aspects, moist snow up to about 1800 metres, and dry snow or recent wind slabs on shaded high alpine aspects. Cornices continue to be described as large and fragile, and may fail with additional loading from forecast snow, or from high daytime temperatures. Buried persistent weak layers continue to be a concern for remote triggering in isolated areas where crusts are not strong enough to "bridge" the weakness. The late February surface hoar/crust weak layer is down 40-90 cm. This layer is still reactive to human triggers in some places while in other spots it's really tough to trigger, and there's not much of a reliable pattern telling us what exact aspects are most suspect. Deeper weak layers from mid-February and early January are now down 50-90cm and 70-120cm respectively. Triggering an avalanche on either of these layers has become unlikely but still has the potential to produce very large avalanches in isolated locations.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.