Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Stiffening wind drifted slabs near and above treeline that are 2 to 4 feet thick rest on top of faceted weak layers that formed around crusts. Leeward sides or ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain on NW through North and  SE aspects are where you're most likely to encounter this slab/weak layer combination. Approach slopes over 35 degrees with caution paying attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and collapsing. Take the time to dig down into the snow to assess if these weak layers are present before committing to slopes.

Warm temperatures below and near treeline could produce wet snow avalanches.  These wet snow avalanches should be small and easy to manage throughout the day.  Pay attention to obvious clues of the snow surface getting wet and gloppy, like rollerballs and pinwheels.  If you start to punch through over your boot top in wet snow, head for a shadier aspect or higher terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Faceted snow that developed prior to last weekend's storm formed around melt-freeze crusts and harder wind-packed surfaces.  These weak layers are now buried by the 2 to 3 feet of snow we've received in the last week.  There were several large natural avalanches on these layers from early Monday.  Areas, near and above treeline that have seen the most amount of wind loading typically on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain should be considered suspect and the most likely slopes to trigger a persistent slab avalanche.  Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and collapsing.  You can also dig quick snowpits in the top 100 cm to assess if these weak layers are present before committing to a slope. These faceted weak layers will be found around these crusts below the recent storm snow.  A persistent slab avalanche would be large (2 to 4 feet thick)  and has the potential to propagate wide distances across the slope.  

    1 - 2 mm facets around crusts have 2 to 3-foot slabs on top from last week's storms. These weak layers continue to show signs of being reactive in stability tests.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Another day with warm temperatures and the intense sun this time of year, will bring the concern for loose wet or wet slab avalanches on solar aspects near treeline and all-terrain below treeline.  Temperatures will quickly climb this morning, where the snow surface below treeline will quickly become wet.  Near treeline, like clockwork, as the sun rises, east-facing slopes will be impacted first transitioning to the south and finally west-facing slopes later in the day. Wet snow avalanches tend to start as a small point release below rock bands and can quickly fan out entraining more snow as it moves down the slope and can produce larger debris piles in terrain traps. Natural avalanches are possible, be aware of travel on or below steep slopes that are directly in the sun. 

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like rollerballs and pinwheels on the surface or the snow becoming wet and sticky.  Either head to a shadier aspect or it may be time to head home for the day.    

    Rollerballs and pinwheels are indications that the snow surface is warming up and becoming wet.

Avalanche Discussion

Overnight temperatures only dipped just below freezing as many slopes did not get a great refreeze overnight. It'll be another warm and sunny day, where temperatures at 9000' should once again climb into the low 50's. Unlike the last couple of days,  20 to 30 mph winds should help keep warming at bay at higher elevations.  Below and near treeline on steep sunny rocky slopes is the most likely place to encounter a wet snow avalanche problem today. At lower elevations, water has been percolating deeper down in the snowpack and may be lubricating crusts or creating wet facets in the overall shallow weak snowpack that exists at these elevations.  Much of the wet snow concerns should be smaller loose wet avalanches, but there is a potential to get a wet slab avalanche that breaks deeper and acts like a slab. These types of avalanches are hard to maneuver in and can easily push you off your feet and drag you down the slope.    

The new concern for the persistent slab problem has transitioned higher up in the snowpack than the deeper facets near the ground that have plagued us most of the season. 1 to 2 mm facets have formed around crusts from last week's high pressure that proceeded the big storm last weekend.  Several large natural and explosive triggered avalanches failed on these weak layers at all elevations mainly on NW through E and SE aspects earlier in the week.  In stability tests, we continue to get these layers to fail and propagate with easy to moderate force as they continue to adjust to this latest round of snow. Warm temperatures and more time should help this problem, but with another active weather pattern shaping up for next week, these weak layers may be with us a while longer. 

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