Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanche danger today is Moderate at all elevations as large and destructive human triggered persistent slab avalanches are possible. Wind and new snow today will continue to thicken and stiffen slabs on the surface that cap faceted persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack.  Open exposed terrain on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded slopes will be the most dangerous today. Before committing to a slope, take the time to dig down to assesses if this strong over weak snowpack structure exists. Sticking to low-angled wind-sheltered terrain is a great way to avoid the avalanche problem altogether.  The danger this evening should increase to Considerable at all elevations as snow totals start to add up.     

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Snow and wind today will start to load slopes, especially near and above treeline on the leeward side of ridgelines and cross-loaded slopes.  Faceted weak layers continue to persist in the snowpack and have been slow to heal and strengthen. We are starting to see a lot of variability throughout the snowpack with some slopes still having a shallow snowpack with easier to trigger weak layers that are taking less force to initiate failures of these weak layers. Wind-loaded slopes especially near and above treeline have deeper snowpacks (2 + m) with harder to trigger weak layers that may just take you finding a likely trigger point where the slab is thinner on the margins of the slab or near rock outcrops.     

    Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses most likely will not be present in travels. Taking the time to dig down deeper into the snowpack or using a probe or ski pole is the only way to assess whether this strong over weak snowpack structure exists. To mitigate the hazard, avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 35 degrees. 

    Faceted weak layers continue to persist in the snowpack and continue to be reactive in extended column tests. With snow in the forecast today into Sunday, these weak layers will face another test with significant loading.

Avalanche Discussion

A quick round of snow yesterday morning brought 1 to 2 inches of snow with moderate to strong swirling winds that could be felt at all elevations. Light snow during the day today could bring an additional couple inches before snowfall really ramps up this evening into Sunday.  Avalanche danger is moderate today at all elevations but should rise overnight as the snow starts to accumulate.  If the storm pushes in earlier than expected, be prepared to dial back your terrain selections.

Winds yesterday were easily drifting snow into small isolated soft slabs on the surface in open exposed terrain on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features.  We were not finding these shallow slabs to be reactive yesterday but pay attention to slopes where you find 6 or more inches of fresh wind drifted snow.  A changing of the snow surface, shooting cracks or wind drifted pillows are all signs of these wind slabs.  A small wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more dangerous avalanche.   

It's a highly variable snowpack right now, with below and near treeline terrain still incredibly weak and shallow (boot penetration on most slopes is all the way to the ground).   Facets and depth hoar continue to make up much of the snowpack and may have a semi supportable melt-freeze crust on the surface from the warm temperatures and sun over the last week.   In the coming days, as the snow starts to quickly add up, these slopes will become more of a concern once we introduce more weight and cohesive slabs.

Above treeline, winds over the last week have created stiff supportable slabs on the surface capping an overall deeper snowpack (2+ meters of snow) on slopes that have not avalanched from the avalanche cycle at the end of January. Faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack are still lingering, but in long column tests are taking moderate to hard force to get these layers to fail. It may just take you hitting a "sweet spot" on the margins of the slab or near rock outcrops where the weak layer is easier to impact to get the slope to fail. On slopes that have avalanched during the end of January cycle, we are finding a shallower snowpack, with faceted layers and depth hoar continuing to persist under the old bed surface.  

As we've seen with the avalanche cycle during the last significant storm, avalanches can be large and unmanageable failing on faceted weak layers on or near the ground. It's this low likelihood but high consequence scenario that should give you pause before committing to steeper terrain. Obvious signs of instability like cracking and collapsing most likely will not be present, and it may not be the first or second person on the slope to get it to fail. Don't get lured in by this false sense of security.  Lower angeled wind-sheltered terrain has great skiing and riding right now. 

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