Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Light snowfall this morning won't change our streak of LOW danger.  Generally safe avalanche conditions exist across the forecast area.  Be wary of small sluffs in consequential terrain so that you don't get pushed into rocks or trees.   

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    On very steep terrain sheltered from the sun and wind, you can trigger small sluffs where the snow surface is loose and cohesionless.  Don't get caught off guard: although facet sluffs move slowly downhill at first, they can also entrain more snow than expected as they gouge through the weak snowpack.  Stay alert near confined gullies or in terrain where a loose avalanche could push you into trees or rocks.

    11/28/20. A small dry loose avalanche triggered on Snodgrass that could push you into trees.

Avalanche Discussion

The big news today is new snow!  With up to a few inches favoring the Northwest Mountains, this change in weather won't be enough to change the danger.  If we see more snow than forecast, watch for thin pockets of wind slabs to develop on high, leeward slopes.    We are in a trend of a relatively quiet snowpack.  It's a good time to explore new terrain or take advantage of generally safe avalanche conditions, provided you don't mind hitting a few rocks.  Weakening snow on the surface is the main source of instabilities today.  Around our forecast area, you can trigger small sluffs involving today's new snow and the sugary facets in the upper snowpack.  We are highlighting loose dry avalanches as a problem in the Southeast Mountains because shallow surface sluffs have potential to gouge deeper into the weak snowpack and be large enough to surprise you or push you around.  Sluff management is the name of the game if you are dropping in on a steep, shady chute where the snow feels loose and sugary.     We still have some lingering uncertainty about the potential for a slab avalanche to break on early-season weak layers on the ground.  This season, we've observed two avalanches that broke on our November 6th facet layer, one was three weeks ago and the other was on Friday.  Clearly, it is a rare problem, and the recent dry spell has further diminished our concerns.  Although we are forecasting that the issue has become unreactive, persistent slab structures still exist on some high, northerly aspects, and it's impossible for us to completely rule out an outlier human-triggered avalanche.   Continue to practice normal caution and safe travel habits such as traveling one at a time in avalanche terrain and keeping visual and verbal contact with your partners.  

This Friday is CBAC's Virtual Avalanche Awareness Night!  The event includes avalanche talks, drive-through food and swag, an awesome gear raffle, and an "Ask a Forecaster" panel -  all broadcast live from the Center for the Arts with your favorite wacky host, Than Acuff.   Tune in on our YouTube channel from 6 to 8 p.m on Friday.  

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