Avalanche forecast

Mt Hood

Feb 18 – 19, 2019Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

An incoming storm should build fresh but shallow wind slabs by the end of the day.  However, it's the potential for a low-likelihood - high consequence persistent slab avalanche that should continue to shape your travel choices, steering you away from slopes capable of producing large avalanches. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    On Tuesday, observe where winds are transporting snow and building fresh wind slabs near and above treeline. NW winds sometimes form wind slabs on unusual aspects in the Mt. Hood area. Approach steep unsupported slopes with wind-drifted snow cautiously, feeling for firm or hollow sounding snow as a sign that wind slabs may be present. You can stay safe by traveling on ridges, wind-scoured areas and moderately angled terrain.  

    Where wind slabs linger near treeline and overlap with the persistent slab potential, don't thread the needle between these avalanche problems and stick to slopes 30 degrees or lower. A triggered avalanche may step down into deeper weak layers to create deadly avalanches, so think seriously before testing larger slopes.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    The snowpack structure remains intact for persistent slab avalanches around 3' in depth near and especially below treeline, but they are becoming harder to find and less likely to trigger over time. We haven't had any of the clear signs that are being reported in other parts of the Cascades, like whumpfing as the weak layer collapses or even human triggered avalanches.  

    While the likelihood of triggering a large and destructive avalanche continues to gradually decrease, the potentially high consequences should shape your terrain choices such that you continue to choose lower angled and supported slopes.

Discussion

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

As recently as Monday, February 18th, Mt. Hood pro-patrol is finding the same weak snow (1-2 mm facets) over a hard crust on northerly aspects below treeline roughly 3 feet below the snow surface. What has changed is that we haven't had an avalanche release down to this depth, human or explosive triggered, in several days over the busy holiday weekend. 

So the ingredients for a destructive persistent slab avalanche remain in place, but they have become harder to find and to trigger. When choosing how you travel through terrain, keep the odds in your favor by choosing simpler terrain at any elevation not capable of producing a large avalanche.

The new and significant round of snow and wind begins late Tuesday afternoon and continues through Wednesday will test this potentially dormant interface. 

We are thrilled you are enjoying winter and traveling (safely) in the backcountry. Take a moment and submit an observation for the Mt. Hood area, especially for places less traveled.

Snowpack Discussion

February 15, 2019

Since February 8th, the mountains (and low elevation cities) of the Pacific Northwest have experienced cold and very stormy weather. Significant snowfall has added up in all forecast zones. Records from Snoqualmie Pass DOT avalanche workers back to 1973 show that February 11-12th set a record for the most snow recorded in a 24hr period at that location. The table below shows storm totals starting February 8th through the morning of the 13th.

5 day totals ending morning of Feb 13th

Water Equivalent (inches)

24hr storm totals

(inches)

Difference in Height of Snow (inches)

Hurricane Ridge

1.97

N/A

+ 30

Mt. Baker

1.94

44

 

Washington Pass

1.66

NA

+ 16

Stevens Pass

2.71

49

 

Snoqualmie Pass

3.91

80

 

Mission Ridge

1.86

38

 

Crystal

2.91

59

 

Paradise

4.55

N/A

 

White Pass

N/A

57 (4400ft)

+ 26 (5800ft)

Mt. Hood Meadows

4.70

43

 

Heavy precipitation brought many mountain regions to their tipping point. Avalanches ran readily with a peak of snowfall intensity. For Stevens Pass, Snoqualmie Pass, East Central, West South, Mt Hood, and possibly West Central zones we have good confirmation that this cycle happened from the night of February 11th through the 12th. In other zones, snow totals haven’t been significant enough for widespread avalanche cycles, or we lack data (like in the East South zone).

A natural persistent slab avalanche (D2.5) on a southeast aspect at 6,600ft. Grindstone Mtn in Icicle Canyon. Likely ran 2/12. Photo: Matt Primomo

The high rates of precipitation drove avalanches in the storm snow. Notably, a persistent weak layer of facets and surface hoar was buried in most zones on February 8th. Storms produced a widespread and prolonged cycle of avalanches on the February 8th interface, involving a variety of aspects and elevations. Local ski patrols, highway workers, and backcountry travelers reported extensive avalanching with widely propagating crowns and very sensitive conditions. With less stormy weather, observers have just begun to get a sense of the extent of the avalanche activity. Triggering persistent slab avalanches will be a concern for backcountry travelers in zones where the February 8th weak layer is active for at least the near, if not distant future. Stay tuned for more updates.

Large surface hoar near Snow Lake Divide on February 7, 2019 just before it was buried on the 8th. Photo: Jeremy Allyn

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