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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2022–Jan 30th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Avoid all avalanche terrain, natural avalanche activity is expected on Sunday with continuous heavy snowfall. 

Widespread storm slabs will form over a smooth crust, and weak surface hoar crystals. 

Confidence

High - We are confident a natural avalanche cycle will begin shortly after the arrival of the incoming weather.

Weather Forecast

A front stalls across the coast Saturday night, bringing heavy snowfall and wind before moving on Sunday afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloud with strong southwest winds. Snowfall begins, bringing 10-20cm by morning. Freezing levels around 1000 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with strong southwest winds. Snowfall continues, 40-60 cm by Sunday afternoon. Freezing levels remain below 1000 m, alpine high of +1. 

MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Isolated flurries possible. Winds switch to moderate from the northwest. Freezing levels drop below 1000 m. 

TUESDAY: Scattered cloud. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Freezing levels around 500 m. Alpine high of 0. 

Avalanche Summary

Widespread natural activity is expected as a result of the heavy precipitation forecast for Sunday. 

Observations are limited. If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy precipitation falls over a thick crust that extends to mountain top. Below the crust, the snow is moist down 50-100 cm where several old crusts are breaking down. 

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, weak and faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack is bonding well to these layers. The middle and lower snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and several hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.
  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.