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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 23rd, 2021–Dec 24th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Give the storm snow time to gain strength before stepping into bigger terrain. Expect deeper and more reactive deposits in wind loaded features as you move to higher elevations. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

The trough exits the province, leaving flurries in its wake. Arctic air will begin to push South into the interior creating frigid winter conditions that will see the Cariboos through Christmas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Chance of flurries overnight with light southerly winds. Trace accumulations expected. 

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy skies with flurries over the day, trace accumulations. Winds remain light from the west. Alpine high of -15.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy with light snowfall, up to 5cm over the day. Winds switch to northeast and remain light. Alpine high of -20. 

SUNDAY: Some cloud with trace accumulations. Moderate easterly winds, and alpine highs of -25. 

Avalanche Summary

Few avalanches observations have been reported due to poor visibility throughout the region. A natural avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred throughout the heavy snowfall received on Wednesday, at alpine and upper treeline elevations. 

If you go out in the mountains, please submit your findings and photos through a Mountain Information Network report.

Snowpack Summary

25-40cm of very light new snow has fallen this week. Recent strong alpine wind have created wind slabs in the alpine and open areas at treeline. 

A concerning facet/crust layer, developed in early December, is now buried between 60-100 cm down. This layer generally exists below 1800 m and is most concerning in the area west of Blue River. In some places, the crust starts to decompose and show variable test results.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.