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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2022–Jan 20th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

The storm is expected to produce rain at most elevations and loose wet avalanches are possible. At the highest elevations that receive mostly snowfall, new storm slabs and natural avalanche activity should be expected. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

A storm system impacts to the coast Wednesday night and Thursday before a warm ridge of high pressure establishes on Friday. 

Wednesday Night: Precipitation 20-30 mm, wind becoming strong SW, freezing levels reaching near 1800 m. 

Thursday: Precipitation 10-15 mm, strong SW wind, freezing levels 1800 m dropping to around 1000 m through the day.

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate to strong NW wind, freezing levels climbing to around 3000 m with an inversion. 

Saturday: Mainly sunny, moderate to strong NW wind, freezing levels around 3200 m with an inversion. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity have been reported over the last few days.

If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow to around 2100 m and a widespread crust is now expected where the snow surface has refrozen. Below this, snow is moist down 25-50 cm where several previous crusts sit that are currently breaking down. 

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, sugary faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust, that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack may be bonding well to these layers. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.