Avalanche Forecast

Tuesday night: Low of -4 at 1500m. Moderate northwest winds with the possibility of a trace of new snow.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with moderate to strong northwest winds. Freezing levels climbing to around 2000m, Potentially 2500m in the Rossland range.

Thursday: Mainly sunny with light to moderate W wind, freezing levels reaching over 2500 m with an inversion.

Friday: sunny with freezing levels around 2000m. Light northwest winds.

On Monday numerous persistent slab avalanches to size 2.5 were observed in the treeline and below. triggers included cornice falls, ski cuts and naturals. Avalanches were observed on all aspects.

On Sunday, several natural loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported. A skier triggered a size 1.5 slab on a NW aspect at 1900 m which failed down 30 cm. Just north of the region, a natural size 3.5 persistent slab was reported on a SE aspect at 2200 m which stepped down to a layer around 100 cm deep, propagated close to 1 km wide, and ran full path. 

On Saturday, numerous natural and human-triggered slab avalanches were reported which were typically size 1-2 but as large size 2.5 with propagation as wide as 100 m. Most of these were failing on the January 30 surface hoar down 15-30 cm but at least two stepped down to the mid-January weak layer down 40-60 cm. The majority of the activity occurred between 1700 and 2100 m elevation. Many of the natural avalanches were on NE aspects and related to wind loading. A few were on SE-SW aspects which are expected to be related to solar triggering. The human-triggered avalanches were occurring on all aspects. 

There are lots of great MIN posts from the region over the weekend describing instabilities such as whumphing and shooting cracks. This MIN post has some great photos of the type of wind slab avalanches we have been seeing recently and this MIN post shows the type of terrain where you might find reactive buried surface hoar below treeline. This MIN post shows what is likely a combination of wind loading and the persistent problem which is most likely around treeline elevations. 

A new sun crust is being reported on solar aspects into the alpine and a temperature crust on all aspects at lower elevations. This crust will likely break down and become moist as the freezing levels rise and the sun comes out again. Ongoing periods of strong wind from the southwest through northwest have formed reactive wind slabs in exposed terrain at higher elevations. 

The January 30 interface is now typically down 20-40 cm and consists of a melt-freeze crust at lower elevations and on solar aspects extending into the alpine, surface hoar in sheltered areas at and below treeline, and small facets in some areas. 

The mid-January interface is now down around 40-70 cm and consists of a crust, facets, and/or surface hoar. It had been dormant prior to the warming but woke up over the weekend and at least a couple avalanches were reported to have stepped down to it.  

The early-December crust/facet persistent weak layer is buried down 100-200 cm. It had been responsible for significant avalanche activity in this region during the first half of January but is now considered dormant. See this forecaster blog on how to manage this layer as it may come into play again later this season.

• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.
• Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
• Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
• Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.