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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 30th, 2023–Mar 31st, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

A weak snowpack still exists throughout this region.

Avoid thin and rocky start zones.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Wet loose avalanches have occurred over the last 3 days, on steep sun affected slopes as freezing levels rose with strong sunshine.

No activity on the deeply buried weak layers has been reported this week. Kananaskis Country and the central Rockies continue to report very large deep persistent avalanches, including a size 3 natural on the 28th of March in Highwood Pass. Thin and rocky terrain features in the upper treeline and alpine should still be avoided.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow exists on the surface at most elevations. At high elevations on shaded slopes, dry snow may still exist. Below this, a crust exists on solar aspects, and faceted snow and surface hoar up in shaded and wind-sheltered areas.

In the middle of the snowpack, there are lingering persistent weak layers, including surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain and a sun crust on south aspects. These layers have not shown recent reactivity, but may still be triggerable in isolated areas and should be on your radar, particularly in the Purcells part of the region.

The lower snowpack is made up of a widespread layer of large, weak basal facets and depth hoar in some areas, which produced large avalanches in the Elk Valley and the neighboring region of Purcells last week. Kananaskis Country reports continued avalanche activity on this layer.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Freezing levels drop back to 500 m, with light westerly winds around 10 km/hr. Partly cloudy skies.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with flurries delivering up to 5 cm of snow. Light southerly wind gusting 40 km/h. Freezing level rises to 1500 m. Alpine temperatures of -5 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy with sunny periods possible in the afternoon. Light snowfall brings 5-10 cm. Light southwesterly wind gusting 40 km/h. Freezing level rises to 1500 m. Alpine temperatures of -5 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy with up to 5 cm of snow. Light southwest winds. Freezing levels around 1300 m, alpine highs of -7 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Conditions may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.