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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 15th, 2021–Nov 16th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

An unprecedented dump (150+cm in 48hrs) for mid-Nov has dramatically changed the landscape. Storm slabs are prevalent at all elevations and aspects.

Travel cautiously for the next couple of days, observing how this huge load settles on the slopes.

Weather Forecast

An Arctic ridge will move into the region early Tues am, bringing cold temps and stable weather.

Tonight: Flurries, 6cm, Alpine high -13*C, mod/strong W winds

Tues: Cloudy w/ sun and isolated flurries, Alpine high -13*C, light/mod W winds

Wed: Cloudy w/ sunny periods, Alpine high -8*C, light SW winds

Thurs: Cloudy, Alpine high -8*C, light SW winds

Snowpack Summary

150+mm of precip in the past 48 hours has formed a remarkable storm slab! The new snow has fallen with moderate SW winds and mild temps. Snow depths have ballooned, with 1m at Rogers Pass, over 1.5m at tree-line, and 2+m in the Alpine. There are 2 crusts to date, the Nov 5th buried ~100cm and the Oct crust that lies near the base of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous large avalanches (sz 3-3.5) observed along the highway corridor, with many running down into valley bottoms.

Expect this natural avalanche cycle to slow on Tues with the end of the snowfall and cooling temps.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.