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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 22nd, 2025–Feb 23rd, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Danger will be HIGH in areas that recieve more than 20 cm of new snow.

In times of uncertainty, conservative terrain choices are our best defense.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, explosives triggered a size 2 wind slab near Castle Mountain.

On Wednesday, a large (size 2.5) persistent slab failed on a north-facing alpine slope near Line Creek.

On Tuesday, there were reports of large (size 2) dry loose avalanches running in steep terrain. These were stepping down to a weak layer of facets buried in late January.

Looking forward, we expect avalanche activity to increase as snow starts to accumulate along with strong winds and warming.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 20 cm of new snow is expected to accumulate overnight and through Sunday, accompanied by moderate to strong southwesterly wind. At lower elevations this will fall as rain. The new snow will cover old wind slabs and wind-affected surfaces in open areas, and around 25 cm of settling snow overlying facetted snow in wind-sheltered areas. A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January is currently buried 40 to 60 cm. There is significant concern for this layer becoming active with the incoming precipitation and warming. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow / rain possible below 1700m. 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level rising to 2000 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow / rain possible below 1700m. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level rising to 2100 m.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud. 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level rising to 1900 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy with 0 to 3 cm of snow / rain possible below 1300 m. 35 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level rising to 1700 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low angle terrain with no overhead hazard.
  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.