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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 24th, 2025–Mar 25th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Rockies, Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Avalanche conditions will deteriorate over the next two days as temperatures rise. There is potential for large, destructive natural avalanches on buried weak layers.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, explosive-triggered storm slabs were also reported up to size 2 and shooting cracks showed signs of instability in wind-affected storm snow near Castle.

Numerous large natural slab avalanches were reported in this MIN from Mear Lake on Saturday. Some of them are suspected to have run on buried weak layers.

Looking forward, we can expect to see an uptick of persistent slab avalanche activity on buried weak layers as warm temperatures weaken the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

20 to 30 cm of recent snow is becoming moist with rising freezing levels.

A melt-freeze crust is found 40 to 50 cm deep, except on high-elevation north and east-facing slopes.

A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 50 to 100 cm deep. It is most likely to be triggered on steep, rocky, convex slopes on northerly and easterly aspects at treeline and above.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Partly cloudy. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy. 10 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature +3 °C. Freezing level rising to 2600 m.

Wednesday

Sunny. 10 to 20 km/h south ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature +7 °C. Freezing level rising to 3200 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature +5 °C. Freezing level falling to 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avalanche danger is expected to increase throughout the day.
  • The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.
  • The more the snowpack warms up and weakens, the more conservative your terrain selection should be.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.