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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2020–Feb 7th, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Extremely strong southwest wind is forecast at all elevations. Fresh snow will be redistributed and form thick wind slabs in lee terrain features. At lower elevations the snow will turn into rain and weaken the snowpack. Expect the avalanche danger to increase throughout the day.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Thursday Night: Cloudy with isolated flurries, moderate northwest wind, treeline high 0 C, freezing level 900 m. 

Friday: Snow, accumulation 25 cm, extremely strong southwest wind, treeline high +2 C, freezing level 1300 m.

Saturday: Mix of sun and cloud, accumulation 10-15 cm, moderate northerly wind, treeline high +2 C, freezing level 1200 m.

Sunday: Sunny, moderate northwest wind, treeline high 0 C, freezing level 700 m.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural and human triggered avalanches of size 1 were reported on Wednesday. Most of these avalanches released within the recent storm snow and were 5-15 cm thick.

Numerous small (size 1) slab avalanches were triggered by humans on Tuesday. Several avalanches released on the crust which was buried by the recent new snow.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures moistened the surface of the snow. 20-30 cm of new snow sits on a thick rain crust. The snowpack below the crust consists of moist to wet snow and is well settled. Snowpack depths are suspected to be in the range of 150-250 cm around the peaks of the north shore mountains (1400 m), tapering quickly with elevation to almost nothing below 1000 m.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Avalanche hazard is expected to to increase througout the day, think carefully about your egress.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.