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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2020–Feb 6th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Wind slab avalanches in steep alpine terrain are the main concern as there are no significant changes in the weather until the weekend.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, moderate wind from the northwest, alpine temperature drop to -12 C.

THURSDAY: Increasing cloud with isolated flurries in the late afternoon, light to moderate wind from the northwest, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.

FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with storm approaching in the evening, light wind from the northwest, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.

SATURDAY: Periods of moderate snowfall with 5-20 cm possible, moderate wind from the southwest, alpine high temperature around -10 C.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported since the weekend. A natural avalanche cycle over the weekend resulted in several large (size 2-2.5) slab avalanches, including some in the Elk Valley that appear to have run on deeply buried weak layers (see photos in this MIN report). These avalanche look similar to the avalanches reported in the same area on January 16 (in this MIN report), suggesting this problem will continue to resurface during stormy periods.

Snowpack Summary

Variable amounts of wind affected snow sits above a widespread rain crust that exists up to roughly 2100 m. The Elk Valley has 5-15 cm of snow above the crust and the eastern slopes have 15-30 cm above the crust. A well consolidated mid-pack overlies generally weak basal facets, that may be possible to trigger in isolated shallow rocky start zones.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use caution when approaching steep and rocky terrian.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.