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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 24th, 2024–Mar 25th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Deep instabilities are still present in the snowpack and should be a factor in you decision making.

Where there is a thick supportive crust on the surface, slab avalanches are unlikely but watch as this crust breaks down through the day and the surface snow may become triggerable.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity has decreased with cooler temperatures.

A widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 3.5 occurred last week during the warm weather. These wet avalanches failed within the moist upper snowpack and stepped down to the persistent weak layer (over 1m deep).

A field team investigated a natural, size 3 avalanche that occurred on Mar 18th, on a N aspect at tree-line. The failure plane was down ~120 cm on the Feb 3rd persistent weak layer.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10cm of recent snow sits over a crust on most aspects and elevations except high alpine north facing slopes. Rain created a thicker crust below tree line, which is melting and refreezing with daily temperature swings.

A weak layer formed on March 9th is down ~30cm and the Feb 3rd persistent weak layer remains a concern at 80-140cm deep.

The lower snowpack is well settled and strong.

Weather Summary

High pressure will maintain dry weather for the early part of the week with daily swings in temperatures and freezing levels (FZL).

Mon: Mix of sun and cloud, low -8 °C, light W winds, FZL 1600m.

Tues: Clouds and sun, low -7 °C, light W winds, FZL 1600m.

Wed: Cloudy with flurries - trace of new snow, moderate S winds, FZL 1800m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Remember that the snowpack will be significantly different at higher elevations than lower down.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.