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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 27th, 2022–Mar 28th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

With no or minimal overnight freezing, warm temperatures, sunshine and light rain will continue to destabilize the snowpack on all aspects and all elevations. Thoughtful terrain choices and conservative decision-making are essential for safe travel in the backcountry. 

Confidence

Moderate - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast Uncertainty is due to the fact that cornice falls are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

An upper ridge builds in from the west and moves across the province on Monday. This will be associated with drying and clearing conditions before the next storm system moving in for Wednesday. 

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries/showers. Trace of precipitation. 15-25 km/h southwesterly winds. Low alpine temperature +3 C with freezing level around 2300 m.

MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries/showers. 2-4 mm. 25-30 km/h southwesterly winds. High alpine temperature +2 C with freezing level around 2200 m.

TUESDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. No precipitation. 15-25 km/h northeasterly winds. High alpine temperature -2 C with freezing level around 1800 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries. 2-4 cm. 20-40 km/h southwesterly winds. High alpine temperature -2 C with freezing level around 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a natural wind slab avalanche size 2 was observed on a southeast slope in the alpine. A few small loose wet avalanches were also reported on solar and north aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snow and moderate wind have formed small pockets of reactive windslab in the alpine. Refrozen crust on all aspects as high as 2300 m, softening in the afternoon at all elevations, and on steep, sunny slopes. Recent warm temperatures, sun, and rain have made the top 5-15 cm of the snowpack moist. At very low elevations, the snowpack may be wet and isothermal, depending on overnight freezing levels. 

30 to 75 cm below the snow surface, you'll find a frozen sun crust on solar aspects. This layer was buried in early March, and it was a cause of several avalanches last week, but the recent warm weather seems to have helped this layer heal. 

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, it is raining, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.