Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 4th, 2022–Mar 5th, 2022

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Enjoy the sunny weather, but remain cautious around wind-affected and steep sun-exposed slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to limitations in the field data.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear skies, light wind from the northwest, treeline temperatures drop to -10 C.

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light wind from the northwest, treeline temperatures reach -6 C.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny, moderate wind from the west, treeline temperatures reach -5 C.

MONDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries bringing up to 5 cm of snow, moderate wind from the northwest, treeline temperatures reaching -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

Mild sunny weather will likely cause some wet loose avalanches on south-facing slopes and cornice failures along ridgelines. There were two large (size 2) human-triggered slab avalanches near Valemount on Thursday. These occurred on east-facing slopes at 2200 m, and involved the top 40 cm of snow above buried surface hoar. Earlier in the week there were a few smaller (size 1) slab avalanches in the top 25 cm of storm snow.

Snowpack Summary

Soft snow may be found on sheltered north-facing slopes, but otherwise the surface has a mix of sun crusts on south-facing slopes, wind-affected snow in the alpine, and moist/crusty snow at lower elevations. 15 to 30 cm of recent storm snow is bonding quickly in most areas, but could still be poorly bonded on some steep sun-exposed slopes, wind loaded slopes, and open convexities at treeline where it may sit above buried surface hoar.

The lower snowpack is generally well bonded, with prominent crust layers 50 to 100 cm deep. While there have been some snowpack test results on weak snow around these crusts in the Blue River and Valemount areas, we do not expect avalanches on these layers under the current conditions.

Terrain and Travel

If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.