Wind increasing Sunday night with 15 cm forecast Monday. Current observations and outlook support moderate danger, but more snow or stronger wind than forecast will increase danger to considerable. Users should stay observant to local snow, loading and changing conditions tomorrow.
SW winds increased into the moderate range with strong gusts Sunday afternoon, building wind slabs in lee alpine terrain by Sunday evening. An additional 10 to 15 cm of new snow is forecast for Monday, combined with continued strong SW winds. This will further build and thicken wind slabs.
A 20-40 cm slab (increasing with incoming snow Mon) over the Jan. 24th surface hoar layer could catch users off guard in isolated, areas at treeline and below. Check the snowpack often and monitor the behavior of the slab above this weak layer closely. Recent activity has been between 1600 and 1900 m.
With new snow and wind approaching on Monday the dry loose problem will likely still be active. Consider your exposure to terrain traps and gullies on Monday.
A small skier/climber accidental was posted to facebook recently near the Stanley Headwall, likely on the Jan 24 surface hoar on Saturday.
A recent MIN report with small avalanches occurring on Jan 24 surface hoar in the Tumbling Peak area.
Last Sunday an avalanche on Jan 24 surface hoar was triggered in Little Yoho Valley in Yoho Park.
20-30 cm of recent low density snow (15cm more on the way Monday), with minimal wind effect, overlays sun-crusts on solar aspects and scoured terrain in the alpine. The Jan 24 layer (surface hoar/crust) is down 30-40 cm at treeline and has been reactive in some areas in Yoho and Kootenay – Dig down and check for this layer before committing to steep terrain
A return to seasonal temperatures is expected, with valley temperatures around -2 and ridge temperatures near -10. Up to 15 cm of new snow is forecast Monday, depending on the model, accompanied by strong SW winds. These conditions will build fresh wind slabs.
