Avalanche forecast

Vancouver Island

Jan 8 – 9, 2023Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist at alpine and treeline elevations. A persistent slab problem lurks at a prime depth for human triggering as well as large, consequential avalanches. Avoid wind-loaded areas and stick to simple, lower-angle, supported slopes with no overhead hazard.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Strong southerly winds and heavy snowfall have created deep deposits of wind slab in the alpine and treeline.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    A crust formed in early January has been bonding poorly to the overlying snow. With the recent new snow load, this crust is now buried 60-80 cm deep, a prime depth for human-triggering as well as large, consequential avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported in recent days with limited travel and visibility in the mountains. We suspect a natural avalanche cycle has occurred in the past few days during periods of heavy loading from snow/rain and wind.

Looking forward to Sunday, human triggering remains likely. A crust formed in early January is now buried 60-80 cm and has the ability to produce large and surprising avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy snowfall accumulation has occurred above 1000 m in the past few days. Rain will soak the snowpack at lower elevations. Avalanches during this period could run on a crust layer that is roughly 60 deep. Snowpack depths at treeline are roughly 100 cm, while most below treeline terrain is below the threshold depth for avalanches, except for isolated smooth features.

Weather Summary

Saturday night

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures drop to a low of -1 °C. Ridge wind southeast easing to 15 - 30 km/h. Freezing level drops to 1000 metres.

Sunday

Rain/Snow, heavy at times, 10-30 mm with greatest amounts on the western side of the island. Alpine temperatures reach a high of 0 °C. Ridge wind south 40-60 km/h. Freezing level rises to 1300 metres.

Monday

Cloudy with precipitation, 5-15 mm. Alpine temperatures reach a high of 0 °C. Ridge wind southeast 35-55 km/h. Freezing level 1300 metres.

Tuesday

Cloudy with sunny periods. Alpine temperatures reach a high of 0 °C. Mostly light ridge wind occasionally gusting to 35 km/h from the south. Freezing level 1000 metres.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.

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