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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2023–Jan 8th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist at alpine and treeline elevations. A persistent slab problem lurks at a prime depth for human triggering as well as large, consequential avalanches. Avoid wind-loaded areas and stick to simple, lower-angle, supported slopes with no overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported in recent days with limited travel and visibility in the mountains. We suspect a natural avalanche cycle has occurred in the past few days during periods of heavy loading from snow/rain and wind.

Looking forward to Sunday, human triggering remains likely. A crust formed in early January is now buried 60-80 cm and has the ability to produce large and surprising avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy snowfall accumulation has occurred above 1000 m in the past few days. Rain will soak the snowpack at lower elevations. Avalanches during this period could run on a crust layer that is roughly 60 deep. Snowpack depths at treeline are roughly 100 cm, while most below treeline terrain is below the threshold depth for avalanches, except for isolated smooth features.

Weather Summary

Saturday night

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures drop to a low of -1 °C. Ridge wind southeast easing to 15 - 30 km/h. Freezing level drops to 1000 metres.

Sunday

Rain/Snow, heavy at times, 10-30 mm with greatest amounts on the western side of the island. Alpine temperatures reach a high of 0 °C. Ridge wind south 40-60 km/h. Freezing level rises to 1300 metres.

Monday

Cloudy with precipitation, 5-15 mm. Alpine temperatures reach a high of 0 °C. Ridge wind southeast 35-55 km/h. Freezing level 1300 metres.

Tuesday

Cloudy with sunny periods. Alpine temperatures reach a high of 0 °C. Mostly light ridge wind occasionally gusting to 35 km/h from the south. Freezing level 1000 metres.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.