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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 22nd, 2022–Dec 25th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes, Waterton.

Conditions are changing, cold air will depart over the weekend bringing strong winds and rising temps. Choose terrain carefully and allow the snowpack to adjust to the new inputs.

Still limited field observations on the surface hoar layer buried on Dec 14th. Suspect the natural cycle observed at treeline likely failed on this layer.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Widespread natural avalanche cycle in this weeks storm snow. Avalanches up to size 2 were observed on road patrol with isolated larger results now buried by new snow. The largest concentration of results was at treeline, suspect 2022-12-14 surface hoar.

Snowpack Summary

50cm of storm snow in the last week falling with L N'erly winds building soft reverse loaded slabs. This overlies the 2022-12-14 surface hoar layer and a settling midpack. Below 1900m the lower snowpack is faceted, however, no failures have been observed. We are tracking two separate unreactive crusts from early season warm-ups.

Weather Summary

Friday

Temps warming through the day with an alpine high -20. Winds will increase through the day from the west with 100km/h ridgetop gusts possible. Light flurries possible.

Saturday

Temps continue to rise with an alpine daytime high of -5. Overcast skies and strong to extreme SW wind.

Sunday

Temps hold around -5 today with strong to extreme SW wind. Broken cloud cover today.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.