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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 23rd, 2022–Dec 24th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Stormy weather returns, expect high precipitation amounts, warming temperatures and a rapidly rising avalanche danger.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed or reported.

Keep sharing your experiences and observations by submitting a MIN report!

Snowpack Summary

Saturday and Sundays heavy snow and rain fall combined with strong south west wind will deposit new snow onto a variety of old hard surfaces. These surfaces will range from an unsupportive sun crust on southern aspects, to heavily wind affected hard surfaces on open exposed terrain and in isolated terrain protected from the wind newly formed surface hoar. The snowpack continues to present as thin and averages 130 cm deep at tree line.

Down approximately 70 cm, a buried layer can be found that contains decomposing surface hoar crystals. There is also a layer of weak, sugary crystals near the base of the snowpack. During testing, these layers are producing hard results and no reports of avalanches occurring on these layers have been observed or reported.

Weather Summary

Beginning Friday night a series of pacific storm fronts are forecast to begin to enter the region. Initially these fronts will remain cool as they begin to mix with the previous intense cool air. As the warm pacific front becomes the dominate weather feature. An expected rise in freezing levels combines with heavy precipitation in the form of snow followed by a brief period of rain. This weather scenario is expected to occur both Saturday and Sunday. A very large difference in precipitation amounts is expected with western leading edge zones such as the 5040 peak seeing upwards of 200mm of precipitation.

Friday night

Snow 10-20 cm. Southwesterly wind at 100 km/h at ridge tops. High of 3 ˚C. Freezing level rising to 2000 m.

Saturday

Snow and Rain for a potential of up to 70 mm. Southeasterly wind at 100 km/h at ridge tops. High of 4 ˚C. Freezing level rising to 2200 m.

Sunday

Snow and Rain for a potential of 20 to 50 mm. Southeasterly wind peaking at 110 km/h at ridge tops. High of 4 ˚C. Freezing level rising to 2600 m.

Monday

Snow and Rain for a potential of up to 10 to 30 mm. Southeasterly wind 40 km/h at ridge tops. High of 3 ˚C. Freezing level descending to 1200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • The first few hours of rain will likely be the most dangerous period.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.