Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2023–Jan 14th, 2023

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

The recent storm snow could still avalanche under the weight of a rider on slopes that are steep enough to ride. Where the snow is dry, avoid dense, slabby snow that cracks around you. Where the snow is wet, avoid snow that pinwheels or snowballs down the slope, or looks and feels like a slurpee.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported, however, heavy precipitation and extreme winds through the recent storm likely triggered a natural avalanche cycle at upper elevations.

Snowpack Summary

It is likely that most areas below 1700m have seen significant rain, which is soaking and shrinking the snowpack. Watch for a new crust to form on the surface as the temperature drops the next few days. There may be 40-80cm of new snow that has a accumulated through this recent storm in the highest alpine terrain.

A crust that was 90-130cm below the surface of the snowpack had been highlighted as a critical avalanche layer in recent snowpack tests, but no avalanches have been reported on this layer, and we expect the recent rain and forecasted temperature drop to eliminate our concern about this layer.

Snowpack depths at treeline are around 120 cm, tapering quickly with elevation. Although the snowpack in most forested areas below treeline remains below threshold depths for avalanches, many steep bluffs, cutbanks, and alpine features in the upper below treeline band are capable of producing avalanches.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Continuing rain at all but highest alpine elevations tapering off in the morning. Light to moderate south wind. Freezing level around 1500m.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy. No new precipitation. Light southeast wind. Freezing level around 1400m.

Sunday

Cloudy with scattered flurries. Light southeast wind. Freezing level around 1200m.

Monday

Mix of sun and cloud. No new precipitation. Light southwest wind. Freezing level around 900 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
Stick to simple terrain features and be certain your location isn't threatened by overhead hazard.
The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.