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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2023–Jan 17th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kitimat, Nass, Rupert, Seven Sisters, Shames, Howson.

The avalanche danger will increase as a storm moves in through the day. Choose mellow slopes and give the snowpack time to adjust to the new load. Uncertainty about a buried layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals would have me using extra caution around treeline.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Very little avalanche activity was reported on Sunday or Monday, but expect natural and human triggered avalanches to be more likely on Tuesday in areas that receive significant new snow.

On Saturday in the Shames backcountry, pinwheeling of moist snow was reported in steeper terrain, along with signs of recent, wet loose avalanches.

Also, a small, rider triggered avalanche was reported northwest of Terrace. It occurred around treeline, and failed down 30 cm, possibly on a layer of surface hoar that was buried on Dec 9.

Snowpack Summary

Fresh snow will be falling mostly on 20-50 cm of dry settling snow, or refrozen or moist snow below 1000 m. In sheltered areas that didn't see rain last week, a layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals buried in early January will now be 30-60 cm below the surface.

Weak layers that were reactive over the Christmas and New Year's period have shown signs of bonding and gaining strength. These include a surface hoar layer buried on Dec 28 found 50 to 100 cm deep and a facet layer buried on Dec 23 found 70 to 120 cm deep.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy. Light snowfall, up to 10cm around Kitimat. Moderate to strong southwest alpine wind. Freezing level around 750 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy. 2-5cm of snow expected, 20-30cm possible around Kitimat. Moderate to strong south alpine wind. Alpine temperatures around -5°C. Snow/Rain line as low as 250m.

Wednesday

Cloudy. 5cm of snow expected overnight. Possibly another 20-30 cm around Kitimat. Moderate southwest alpine wind. Alpine temperatures around -10°C. Snow/Rain line as low as 250 m.

Thursday

Cloudy. 5-10cm of snow expected. Strong southwest alpine wind. Alpine temperature rising to -5ºC through the day.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.