Avalanche Forecast

On Monday and Tuesday, in the Fernie area. Warming and rain induced a widespread, naturally triggered, loose wet avalanche cycle. This included several large (size 2-2.5), avalanches and one large (size 2.5) glide slab.

On Saturday, south of Fernie, a large (size 2), rider triggered avalanche was reported on a NE/E facing slope around treeline. The reporting riders kindly shared their close call on the Mountain Information Network (MIN). See the post here for more information and photos. Based on the direction the cornices have formed on the ridge above, it looks like the feature may have been cross-loaded by the wind. The reporting party said it appeared to trigger on a thin spot near some rocks, and that warm temperatures and sun may have been a factor.

If you head out in the backcountry, let us know what you are seeing by submitting a report to the Mountain Information Network.

Past moderate to heavy rain has saturated the surface snow to mountain tops in most places. Most weather reports indicate 20-30 mm of precipitation fell mostly in the form of rain.

The mid-snowpack is generally well-settled and strong.

At treeline and below, shallow snowpack areas are likely to be isothermal. Rain-soaked surfaces are starting to freeze as temperatures drop, and a lot more dirt is showing at low elevations.

The lower snowpack includes a layer of weak sugary crystals near the ground. This layer has not produced recent avalanche activity in this area, but professionals continue to monitor for signs of it becoming active.

Overnight cooling followed by afternoon rising freezing levels and warming is likely to unconsolidated and rapidly settle the upper snowpack especially on south aspect terrain when the sun appears. Prepare to continually evaluate the conditions, and change plans as necessary.

Tuesday Night

Clearing with cloudy periods. 1-5 cm of snow is possible in the alpine. Freezing level descending to 600m, Alpine temperature low of -7°C. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind.

Wednesday

Clear and sunny with possible trace amounts of snowfall. Freezing level rising to 1500m mid day. Alpine temperature high of -1. Light southwest wind.

Thursday

Clear and sunny with with possible trace amounts of snowfall. Freezing level rising to 1900m mid day. Alpine temperature high of 1°C. Light southwest wind.

Friday

Clear and sunny with no forecast precipitation. Freezing level rising to 1800m mid day. Alpine temperature high of 1°C. Light southwest wind.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

• Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
• Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
• Be alert to conditions that change throughout the day.
• Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
• The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.