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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 2nd, 2023–Dec 3rd, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

An increased load on the widespread surface hoar & strong to extreme SW winds will elevate the avalanche danger. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision making is essential.

The Winter Permit System is in effect. Take the quiz and get your permit.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, one natural size 2 avalanche was observed from the steep terrain of Mt. Macdonald. A field team in the Fidelity area also observed several small, loose surface sluffs running fast out of steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

15cm of new snow covers widespread feathery surface hoar and/or a thin crust on steep terrain facing the sun. This will be the layer to watch as the new snow piles up!

The height of snow at treeline is around 95cm which is well below average. Many rocks/trees lurk just below the snow surface & coverage on glaciers is thin.

The base of the snowpack consists of weak, sugary facets.

Weather Summary

A series of storms over the the coming days will bring much needed snow. However, with it comes strong winds & high freezing levels.

Tonight: Trace precip, Low -11°C, Mod SW wind

SUN: 13cm, -7°C, Strong>Extreme SW, Wind, Fz lvl 1100m

MON: 27cm, -7°C, Mod to Strong SW Wind, Fz lvl 1700m

TUES: 26cm, -3°C, Mod>Strong SW Wind, Fz lvl 2300m

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.
  • Be carefull with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.