Avalanche Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow. Moderate to strong south winds.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with continuing scattered flurries and about another 5-10 cm of new snow. Moderate to strong south winds easing over the day and shifting southwest. Alpine high temperatures around -7 with freezing levels around 1200 m.

MONDAY: Mainly sunny. Light south winds. Alpine high temperatures around -8.

TUESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Light south winds shifting west and increasing. Alpine high temperatures around -8.

Avalanche observations from the past week are limited to some reports of natural avalanches in the Barkerville area on Wednesday. Warm sunny weather likely caused a cycle of wet loose avalanches over the past few days.

Given the lack of recent field observations we remain uncertain about the likelihood of persistent slab avalanches. Since there was significant activity on these layers between Feb 23-28 (see below), we recommended remaining cautious because these types of weaknesses can take a long time to heal. Only consider pushing into bigger, steeper avalanche terrain if you are equipped to rule out the possibility of deeper weak layers in your local riding area.

Some of the notable avalanche activity that has us concerned include:

• A very large (size 3.5) persistent slab avalanche that likely occurred on Feb 28 just north of the region in the McGregors, likely triggered by a smaller wind slab avalanche (MIN report)
• A natural size 2.5 avalanche that ran full path in the Dore River area on Feb 25 (MIN report)
• A very large human-triggered avalanche near Valemount on Feb 23 that was initiated from a wind-loaded start zone at the top of a large alpine feature
• A fatal avalanche just outside of the region, northeast of Valemount, in Swift Creek on Feb 23. The avalanche was a size 3.5 and is suspected to have failed on the late January weak layer (Incident report).

Up to 10 cm of new snow accumulated above moist and crusty interfaces that formed during Thursday's warm up. Deeper accumulations can be expected in lee terrain features as a result of southwest winds. High, shaded terrain will have a mix of soft snow and some old buried wind slabs.

In the last week of February multiple weak layers produced large avalanches, but we have little to no information about how these layers have trended since then. Recent weather patterns have likely helped these layers strengthen, but uncertainties are high. 

Layers of concern include a 50-100 cm deep layer of facets that was buried in mid-February, a 50-150 cm deep layer of surface hoar from early February that was most prevalent at treeline (and existed as a facet/crust combination on steep south-facing terrain), and finally another persistent weak layer from late January that is now roughly 100-150 cm deep.

• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
• Use conservative route selection and resist venturing out into complex terrain.