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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 22nd, 2021–Feb 23rd, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Our winter wonderland was walloped by a warm, wet, and windy wild one.

A natural avalanche cycle is occurring in the Rogers Pass area, with numerous large avalanches from size 3 to 4.

I highly recommend you visit your local ski hill today.

Weather Forecast

Passage of the main storm front this morning, then unsettled afterwards.

Today: Cloudy with locally intense flurries, 5-10cm, FZL 1500m, Alp high -5*C, mod/gusting extreme S winds

Tues: Cloudy with flurries, trace amounts, FZL 600m, Alp high -12*C, mod W winds

Wed: Cloudy with sun and flurries, Alp high -12*C, mod SW winds

Snowpack Summary

Extreme south winds and a warm 40mm of precip overnight. The Feb 14 drought interface is now down 50-70cm in sheltered areas; this interface is predominantly a wind crust in exposed areas near the height of the pass, and buried windslabs and facets as you move East and West. Facets and a weak suncrust still linger down 80-100cm on the Jan 24th PWL.

Avalanche Summary

We are in the tail-end of a natural avalanche cycle, with large (up to sz 4), naturally-occurring avalanches running in many paths. Observations from the overnight shoot include numerous sz 3-4 artillery-controlled avalanches both east and west of the Pass. Natural activity should drop with the passage of the front and cooling later this morning.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.