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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 30th, 2021–Mar 31st, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Expect spring sun and rising freezing levels to increase the hazard as the day progresses. Leave solar slopes before they get moist. Moderate wind could help keep things cool, but could also be building new wind slabs near ridge crests. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT - Clear / moderate to strong north west wind / alpine low temperature near -10 / freezing level at valley bottom.

WEDNESDAY - Mostly clear / moderate to strong west wind / alpine high +2 /freezing level 2000 m

Stating Thursday through Easter weekend, models suggest it is possible we will not get good overnight recovery.

THURSDAY- Potential for no overnight freeze / partly cloudy / moderate south west wind / alpine high +3 / freezing level 2200 m

FRIDAY - Partly cloudy / moderate south west wind / alpine high of 0 / freezing level 2000 m

Avalanche Summary

There were no field observations on Tuesday, but neighbouring regions reported size 1-2.5 avalanches from Monday/Tuesday.

Natural avalanches up to size 2 were reported by our field team on Monday. On the east slope there were reports of storm slabs forming during the day that were reactive to ski cutting in the size 1.5 range. 

Snowpack Summary

The 20-40 cm of recent storm snow appears to be bonding well to previous melt freeze crusts from mid March that were found on all but steep north facing alpine slopes. Moderate northerly winds have been transporting snow and forming new wind slab in lee features. Cornices are reported to be large and looming. With rising freezing levels and sunny skies, snow will likely loose strength as it gets moist at lower elevations and upper elevations on solar aspects. 

The mid-pack is firm and well settled. Some faceted snow and a decomposing melt-freeze crust can be found near the base of the snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.