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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 5th, 2022–Apr 6th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

North Rockies.

 Warm temperature and sunshine will increase the likelihood of avalanche activity, especially on steep slopes that are baking in the sun. 

 A conservative approach to terrain is a great way to ease into your day while assessing along the way. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with strong solar input and light ridgetop wind light from the southwest. Freezing level 1400 m and alpine temperatures near -6 C. 

Thursday: WARM. Freezing levels rise to 2500 m by the afternoon. Alpine temperatures +3C and ridgetop wind moderate from the southwest. No overnight refreeze.

Friday: Cloudy and warm with up to 10 cm of new snow. Freezing levels remain near 2500 m with alpine temperatures near +3C. Freezing levels should drop to 1400 m by Saturday with alpine temperatures near -10 C

Avalanche Summary

No recent reports since last weekend. 

Avalanche activity will likely increase when the sun comes out, especially on southerly slopes. Be aware of overhead hazards like failing cornices and big avalanche paths that are facing the sunshine. 

On Sunday, a small natural wind slab avalanche was observed on a north aspect in the alpine. A rider triggered a small slab avalanche on the same slope. Both avalanches likely occurred on Saturday.

On Saturday, many natural dry loose avalanches were reported in steep terrain, as well as a large cornice failure that released a slab on the slope below. 

Snowpack Summary

10 to 25 cm of new storm snow blankets upper elevations with the greater snowfall amounts being in the Renshaw. Strong west to southwest wind will be redistributing the new storm snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming touchy wind slabs and developing large cornices. The upper 60 cm of the snowpack consists of multiple crusts. The surface snow consists of a thin crust up to 1800 m that is supportive below 1400 m. 

30-60 cm of snow sits on the thick melt-freeze crust from late March. This crust can be found up to 1900 m on all aspects. 

Wednesdays' sun and warming will likely create moist/ wet surface snow on all aspects up to 1500 m and to the mountain top on southerly slopes. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • Adjust your travel plans accordingly to the changing conditions of elevation and time of day.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.