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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 13th, 2022–Apr 14th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Keep terrain choices conservative while storm snow begins to bond. Watch for wind loaded pockets in unusual places as wind direction has varied.

Brief periods of sunshine could quickly increase avalanche hazard on south facing slopes. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing up to 3 cm. Moderate east/southeast winds. Freezing levels drop to 500 m overnight.

THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with light easterly winds. Freezing level rises to 1000 m. Snow begins in the afternoon with 5 cm expected for most areas. 

FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with light easterly winds. Freezing level rises to 1000 m. Light snowfall in the afternoon bringing 5-10 cm, and another 5-10 cm possible overnight.  

SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with moderate easterly winds. 10-20 cm of snow expected. Freezing levels rise to 1000 m. 

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches have been reported over the last 3 days. This MIN describes recent dry snow as being reactive but only producing small avalanches. 

Observations are limited at this time of year, so please consider posting to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 60 cm of storm snow sits over a widespread crust. Winds have switched from southwest to northeast; wind affected snow can now be found on all aspects at treeline and above. 

Several crusts exists in the upper snowpack, some widespread and some limited to solar aspects. These crusts may act as sliding surfaces for avalanches, however reports suggest that snow is bonding well to the crusts. The mid and lower snowpack is considered strong, consisting of hard snow and melt freeze crusts. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Sheltered slopes at lower elevations will offer the best riding.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.