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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2024–Jan 10th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Blue River, Clearwater, Premier, Clemina, North Monashee.

Keep selecting conservative terrain as new snow stabilizes and watch for signs of instability like shooting cracks or recent avalanches. Shallow, rocky areas remain especially suspect.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Tuesday was likely a busy day for natural and human-triggerable avalanches as moderate to heavy snowfall and elevated winds affected the region.

A size 2 (large) deep persistent slab was triggered from a 20 m distance in the Clemina alpine on Sunday on a NE aspect. It was 70 cm deep, failing at the base of the snowpack. This highlights the problematic basal snowpack structure in the region.

Aspects lee of northerly winds will be a concern for new wind slab formation Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 25-35 cm of new snow fell in the region Monday night through Tuesday morning. It buried moderately wind-affected snow in exposed areas at elevation and otherwise added to about 50 cm of recent storm snow.

This older snow is settling and gradually bonding to a variety of old surfaces. Sheltered terrain where it buried surface hoar is where its bond is still under suspicion. It overlies a crust below about 1600 m.

Two additional surface hoar layers in the top 1.5 m of the snowpack are diminishing in importance. The deeper of the two likely has a robust crust above it below treeline.

The depth of the snowpack varies greatly throughout the region and weak basal facets are present at the base of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Cloudy with easing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Southwest alpine wind shifting northwest, 5-15 km/h, easing.

Wednesday

Clearing, still mainly cloudy. Northwest alpine wind 5-15 km/h. Treeline temperature -16°C.

Thursday

Mainly sunny with a trace of new snow from overnight. Northeast alpine wind 10-25 km/h. Treeline temperature -29°C.

Friday

Sunny. North Alpine wind 5-10 km/h. Treeline temperature -30°C to -35°C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.