Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 12th, 2023–Dec 13th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Below Threshold.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Glacier.

A persistent weak layer sits at the ideal depth for large human triggered avalanches.

The safest way to manage this problem is through conservative terrain choices.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Sporadic human triggered avalanches continue to occur. On Tuesday a group triggered a size 2.5 which showed wide propagation across terrain features on Ursus Minor. Several days prior a size 2 was remotely triggered by a group 20m away near Balu Pass.

Snowpack Summary

30cm of low density recent snow sits over a rain crust up to 2100m and settled snow above this elevation.

A weak layer (Dec 1 surface hoar) buried 70-100cm deep continues to produce 'sudden' results in snowpack tests and human triggered avalanches.

The base of the snowpack is facetted at upper elevations.

Weather Summary

The ridge of high pressure maintains dry weather on Wednesday before light snowfall arrives on Thursday with light to moderate winds.

Wednesday: Sun and cloud, moderate S winds, high of -2 °C, freezing level 1500m.

Thursday: Snow 10cm with light SW winds, low -8°C high of -5 °C, freezing level 1400m.

Friday: Sun and cloud, low -7°C high of -3 °C, light S winds, freezing level 1200m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.