Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Regions
South Coast.
Warm temperatures and sun cause unstable snow, especially in the afternoon. If the snow is moist or mushy, dial back your terrain selection and avoid cliffs, gullies and steep slopes with trees.
Confidence
High - The weather pattern is stable
Weather Forecast
We're looking at fine weather for the foreseeable future. Significant warming begins Tuesday afternoon, with temperatures eventually forecast to hit double digits at mountaintop!!!Tuesday: Mainly sunny and becoming warm up high. Freezing levels rising to 2000 m. Light northerly winds.Wednesday: Sunny and warm. Light northerly winds. Freezing levels 3300m. Alpine high temperatures to +11 Celsius!Thursday: Sunny and warm. Light northerly winds. Freezing levels 3200m. Alpine high temperatures to +11 Celsius!
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday we had a report of a Size 1.5 natural wind slab avalanche by Sky Pilot Mountain on a northerly aspect near 1500m. See here for the MIN report. A significant travel hazard on Tuesday may be snow falling off heavily laden trees (aka tree bombs) as the freezing level heads towards 3000m and temperatures rise quickly.
Snowpack Summary
Late last week through to Saturday we saw significant storm snow totals, on the order of 80-100cm in the North Shore mountains. That said, all the new snow appears to be bonding well to a crust (down 80-100cm at tree line elevations) and stabilizing rapidly. Travel has improved below tree line, but there are still open creeks, alder and other early season hazards. Expect snow depths of around 60 cm at 800 m and around 200 cm at 1200 m.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.