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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 9th, 2016–Apr 10th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

The avalanche danger should lower slightly on Sunday due to a slight cooling trend, but still remain Moderate. Larger avalanches caused by glide releases or cornice fall are possible in isolated areas. Get off steep slopes early in the day and be aware of the overhead hazard to minimize your exposure. 

Detailed Forecast

A shift to onshore flow will maintain fair and mild conditions Sunday, but slightly cooler than the previous several days. Winds should remain light Sunday with some night and morning low level clouds possible in the valleys.  Freezing levels and temperatures should remain near 10,000 feet Sunday. Stay aware of the overhead hazard to minimize your exposure. 

Surface crusts should form overnight through the early morning hours followed by gradual melting and weakening. Pay attention to the integrity of surface crusts formed overnight. Loose wet avalanches will be possible on any steeper slope due to warming Sunday. Backcountry travel early in the day is encouraged since conditions can change rapidly due to daytime warming. Watch for wet snow deeper than your boot tops, especially on steep solar slopes during the late morning to afternoon hours.

The potential for cornice releases will continue on Sunday. Cornice releases can be unpredictable during the spring so avoid areas below cornices and remember that cornices can break much further back than expected along ridges.

Although not listed as an avalanche problem, large, powerful glide avalanches can release unexpectedly so avoid areas below steep unsupported slopes or rock faces.

Avalanche activity on Sunday should be less extensive as during the very warm weather last week which more closely followed a period of heavier snowfall and caused consolidation and some stabilizing. Continue to evaluate avalanche conditions on specific terrain features and change your plans if snow conditions are more dangerous than expected.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

An upper ridge has dominated the weather pattern since Wednesday, causing sunny days and very warm temperatures, including high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s at Hurricane Ridge on Thursday and Friday!  After a stormy March, the snowpack has undergone significant settlement and multiple melt-freeze cycles over the last two weeks. This has allowed melt water to drain well from the upper snowpack and consolidate.

The mid and lower snowpack in the Olympics should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.

Recent Observations

During the warm stretch last week, 1 large glide avalanche (R3-D3) naturally released on the 20th of June slide path (easterly aspect, near treeline) to the ground. According to NPS rangers, the avalanche likely released on Wednesday 3/30 or Thursday 3/31.

NWAC pro-observer, Matt Schonwald toured extensively in the Hurricane Ridge area Saturday, 4/2 and found a well settled and seasonally deep snowpack with very few avalanche concerns.  

Only shallow amounts of recent snow were received Monday through early Tuesday at Hurricane Ridge. The snowpack has been undergoing stabilizing melt-freeze cycles over the past several days equating to typical spring melt-freeze conditions. 

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.