Avalanche forecast

Cariboos

Dec 25 – 26, 2013Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Expect avalanche danger to increase throughout the day. Danger may be lower in areas that receive less snowfall than forecast.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    2–4
    Persistent weak layers exist in the upper meter of the snowpack. With the additional load of the forecast snow they may be susceptible to triggering, creating large destructive avalanches.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    2–4
    Expect touchy soft slabs to develop as the temperatures warm through the storm. Strong winds will likely form reactive pockets of windslab in ridgetop and cross loaded lee features in the alpine and at treeline.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–5
    In areas with a shallower snowpack it may be possible to trigger larger avalanche on or close to the ground.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A series of frontal systems pushing across Northern BC will bring moderate to heavy precipitation to the Caribous Tonight through Friday. Saturday will see a return to relatively cool and dry conditions in the wake of the storm.Tonight and Thursday. Snow amounts: 20-40 cm. Ridge winds: Strong westerly. Freezing levels: Rising to 1500m.Friday. Snow amounts: Up to 10 cm. Ridge winds: Strong westerly. Freezing levels: 1200m.Saturday: Flurries. Ridge winds: light northwesterly. Alpine temps: -10.

Avalanche Summary

We've received recent reports of the basal weaknesses causing large natural avalanche to ground on N to NE aspects.Reports of avalanches on the early December surface hoar from the Monashees where the snow amounts of the last storm were greater suggest that we may see a similar cycle develop in the Caribous over the next couple of days.

Snowpack Summary

We're dealing with a complex snowpack in the Caribou Mountains at this time. New snow will load the regions persistent weak layers which could reach a critical point tomorrow.Up to 160cm of snow can be found at treeline. Alpine snow depths vary between 1 to 2m. New snow is falling on a settling upper snow pack. 50 to 80cm of snow now sits on a variety of old weak layers from early December: surface hoar, faceted snow, and/or a crust. Previously warm temps have formed a cohesive mid pack on top of surface hoar or facets from late November. Snowpack tests results have been varied but some are showing this layer pop with medium loads. In many places we're still dealing with a relatively thin snowpack so there's not a whole lot of snow between riders and the sugary snow (facets) near the ground.

Regions covered