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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2017–Jan 9th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

West winds are just squeaking past the high pressure system to the North and are building windslabs. If this continues, a fair amount of precipitation could arrive with moderate West winds... Watch for hazard to increase should this materialize.

Weather Forecast

Arctic air over much of BC and Alberta is fending off the Western push of Pacific air. Waterton is along the margin and whichever air mass wins will provide the weather over the next few days. The pacific air could spell moderate snowfall, increased winds that shift SW and then back W, as well as warming over the end of the weekend

Snowpack Summary

Yesterday, West winds began to stir up the 10-15 cm sitting around from last weekend and began forming fresh slabs along treeline ridgecrests and in lee alpine areas. In thin areas, sugary mid-pack facets continue to weaken with the sustained cold temps. The slab properties over this layer are variable and have likely lost some sensitivity as well

Avalanche Summary

A avalanche involvement reported from Glacier NP USA has lead to a fatality.  Initial reports indicate the victim succumbed to trauma and was not buried in a slide that occurred at upper elevations. Locally only a few windslabs have been reported in the last few days but avalanches last week indicate the persistent slab problem is still of concern

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.