Avalanche forecast

Waterton Lakes

Mar 12 – 15, 2016Parks Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Winter returns at upper elevations, time to get back in the mind set of choosing terrain carefully. JH

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Expect ongoing cornice development with warm temperatures and snowfall at the start of the weekend.  These may become brittle as temperatures cool.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Snow showers through the weekend will continue to add to the load on the early March crust.  With this crust as a potential weak interface these storm slabs may be slow to strengthen.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

Weather Forecast

Saturday: A cold front passes over the area giving; moderate to strong SW wind; 10-15 cm of snow, and freezing levels spiking to TL as the front approaches then dropping to valley bottom.Sunday-Monday: Unstable air in the wake of the front will give ongoing cool temps, cloudy skies and flurries. Accumulations of up to 10cm are forecast.

Snowpack Summary

Thursdays heavy snowfall and strong SW winds built storm slabs up to 40cm deep over the early March rain crust (present on all aspects into the lower alpine), these remained sensitive to human triggering Friday. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well consolidated, and is made up of a series of crusts at lower elevations and on solar aspects.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous naturally triggered small to large storm slab avalanches occurred on N-E (lee) aspects during Thursdays storm. Ski cutting in a steep lee at treeline produced a small (size 1.5) storm slab avalanche on Friday, this was observed to have run on the early March crust.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Regions covered