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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 3rd, 2014–Apr 6th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Watch for even short periods of solar heating or rain to cause an increase in hazard beyond the posted Danger Ratings.

Weather Forecast

Up to 5cm Friday and 5 Saturday is forecast to arrive with continued moderate West winds. Strong solar heating Thursday with a poor recovery expected overnight. Freezing levels quickly returning to 1800m Friday then 1600m for Saturday and 1800m again for Sunday. A freezing level of 3000m with sunny periods will be a significant change for Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Surface crusts on East through West aspects have formed with the daily heating pattern. A shear persists down about 30 cm on shaded aspects on the 0325 interface. March crusts down 70 to 100cm on all but North aspects above treeline could be a problem with strong sustained warming or rain. Feb facets still a concern in high elevation thin areas.

Avalanche Summary

Only superficial loose moist activity has been seen over the last few days however a few significant slabs were triggered by cornice failures associated with wind and warming last weekend.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.