Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist as strong winds and new snow have formed wind slabs near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. These slabs may appear pillow like or smooth and rounded, feeling stiffer underfoot.  1 to 4 feet down, facets and depth hoar linger, and it's possible to trigger a large persistent slab avalanche. These avalanches would be larger and potentially unsurvivable, taking with it most of the season's snowpack. Watch for shooting cracks and collapsing, as these are signs of unstable snow. You can find safer slopes in wind sheltered areas that are less than 30 degrees today that doesn't have steep slopes above you.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    1 to 2 foot wind slabs can be found near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Watch for stiffening snow underfoot and cracking on the surface off of your boards, avoiding obvious pillow like features. These wind slabs may look smooth and rounded and will be forming on slick smooth crusts or near surface facets.  Triggering a wind slab avalanche could be dangerous on its own but it could also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  

    Strong W/SW winds yesterday were transporting snow on to North and East aspects at upper elevations. 

    Photo: Charlie Harrison 3/14

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Depth hoar and faceted crusts 1 to 4 feet below the surface and continue to remain weak and easy to impact. Recent snow and wind have loaded slopes and are stressing these persistent weak layers. The most dangerous slopes will face the northern side of the compass, but you can also find this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak on some east and west aspects.  Obvious signs of instability like cracking and loud audible collapses may not be present and give you a false sense of security to push onto steeper slopes. 

    Avalanches will grow in size on north aspects at upper elevations where overlying slabs are deeper and may take you hitting a sweet spot on the margins of the slab where weak layers are easier to impact. These avalanches have the potential to take with them most of the season's snowpack and would be large enough to bury or injure you. 

    A large natural persistent slab avalanche on a NE aspect that broke mid-path. 

    Photo: 3/14 Charlie Harrison

Avalanche Discussion

The winds have finally calmed down, and although they weren't as strong as forecasted, they were easily transporting snow at all elevations yesterday. Storm totals are in the 8 to 12 inch range, with about 0.8" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Today will bring a couple of more inches of snow, mainly in the afternoon into the early evening. Cloud cover today should help preserve the snow quality, as there is some excellent powder to be had. 

 Visibility wasn't great yesterday, but we did observe some natural avalanches, with one being a large persistent slab avalanche on NE aspect near treeline. This avalanche broke about 300' across terrain features and appeared to be close to 4 feet deep. It's hard to say whether a smaller avalanche up top started it before it stepped down or, with such strong winds, mid-path loading was the cause, but the message is clear. This latest storm and loading is stressing the shallow, weak faceted snowpack. Whether it's a faceted crust or well-developed depth hoar, persistent weak layers are widespread in our snowpack right now. Snowfall since March 5th has almost doubled the amount of snow we've received since the end of January and is building cohesive slabs on top of these widespread weak layers. 

The most dangerous slopes face the north and east side of the compass, as strong winds and snow have loaded slopes with 1 to 2 foot cohesive slabs. Control teams were finding these slabs to be reactive yesterday at upper elevations. In our travels, we were finding these slabs to be forming further down below ridgelines from the strong winds. There is a real possibility of a one, two punch where a smaller wind slab avalanche starts up high and then steps down into deeper weak layers. 

Below treeline, on north aspects, which are about the only slopes that have enough snow to ski or ride on, you'll find a very weak snowpack as boot penetration is all the way to the ground in most spots. Winds yesterday, were drifting snow even at these lower elevations, and you may find a slope that has enough of a cohesive slab for it to fail on facets below a crust or into depth hoar below.  In more wind sheltered areas on steep slopes, you may get the new snow to run as loose dry snow avalanche that can grow in size as it gouges into the depth hoar below.   

Although it may feel like spring recently, our snowpack is still in mid-winter form. The snowpack right now, is one I do not trust as we've had persistent slab avalanches with each round of significant snow or wind since storms finally came our way at the end of January. With a low snow year, in our wind and solar driven snow climate, snow that remained prior to this storm was mainly confined to northerly, some east and cross-loaded west aspects. This makes it difficult to fully avoid the avalanche problems right now if you want to make a turn. The one tool we do have when dangerous avalanche conditions exist is terrain selection and cautious route-finding.  Sticking to wind-sheltered slopes less than 30 degrees, avoiding having steep slopes above you, will provide the safest and best skiing and riding.  

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