Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Once the sun melts a breakable crust, natural and human-triggered avalanches will be possible on steep slopes. Seek, colder shaded aspects with more appealing snow conditions. Near ridgelines and in steep, rocky or extreme terrain you can still trigger a stubborn wind slab.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The sun came out just enough on Saturday to form a 1 cm breakable crust on sun-affected aspects. With more sustained sun and almost no wind forecast for Sunday, expect the crust to limit wet loose activity first thing in the morning. Once the crust breaks down rollerballs and small natural or human-triggered wet loose activity will occur. As a general rule, adjust your aspect to colder, shaded aspects if the snow becomes sticky and wet; also avoid exposure to steep, sun-exposed slopes even if those slopes are high above you.

    Elevations below 4500 ft have six inches of snow or less and therefore minimal avalanche danger below treeline. You could still see small wet loose activity that could be a problem where it funnels you into a terrain trap.

    (12/31/2022)

    Roller balls on road cut (Hurricane Ridge Road).  Avalanches on steep SW-S-SE slopes may entrain more snow once the surface crust breaks down on Sunday.

    Photo: Sam siemens-Luthy

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs are becoming more stubborn to trigger with time as a more reactive mid-storm interface on Saturday has shown signs of healing (you can see photos of this reactivity from 12/30 in the photo gallery). Compression tests on an ENE aspect at 5000 ft showed some settlement just above the crust layer, but no propagation in tests. Several small crowns released in steep, rocky alpine terrain likely early Friday night. This serves as a reminder that winds were blowing snow early in the storm.  Cross-loaded features, or lee slopes where you find more than 15" of snow above the Christmas crust will be your most likely trigger points as you move into very steep or unsupported terrain.  If you move into more committing or alpine terrain features, consider jumping on some smaller wind-loaded knolls to see how these wind slabs are behaving in your local area.

    (12/31/2022)

    Wind loaded lee ridglines. Stubborn to trigger.

    Photo: Sam siemens-luthy

Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures fell below freezing on 12/27 and have stayed below freezing at Hurricane Ridge with subsequent snow burying the 7 cm thick, pencil-hard Christmas Crust. Snow bonded well to the crust and does not show signs of propagation in tests. Over a foot of right-side-up snow has fallen since 12/29 with snowfall tapering off Saturday morning. Observers found around 5" of cold snow above the crust, providing excellent ski conditions on most aspects to end 2022. SW winds redistributed that snow more toward the beginning of the storm than at the end. Sunshine made an appearance Saturday afternoon forming a crust on some aspects. 

Difficult/early season travel remains in thickly treed areas and at elevations below treeline due to significant loss of snowpack with the atmospheric river event over Christmas.

Have a happy New Year and here's to snowy and safe adventures in 2023! 

Regions covered